Bond Market Review (Wednesday,03/11)
Prices of Government Debt Securities (SUN) closed with a weakening bias during yesterday’s trading session. PHEI data showed that the yield on the 5-year SUN benchmark (FR0109) rose by 10 basis points (bps) to 6.09%, while the yield on the 10-year SUN benchmark (FR0108) increased by 1 bp to 6.68%. According to Bloomberg data, the 10-year SUN yield curve (GIDN10YR) remained unchanged at 6.71%. The 10-year yield curve level remains within our weekly estimated range of 6.45%–6.72%.
Outright traded transaction volume in Government Securities (SBN) reached Rp35.1 trillion yesterday, relatively unchanged compared with the previous day’s volume of Rp35.6 trillion. FR0109 and FR0100 were the two most actively traded series in the secondary market, with transaction volumes of Rp6.0 trillion and Rp3.6 trillion, respectively. Meanwhile, outright transaction volume for corporate bonds totaled Rp8.4 trillion.
In the March 2026 APBN Kita press conference, the Ministry of Finance reported that state revenue realization as of 28 February 2026 reached Rp358 trillion, growing 12.8% year-on-year (yoy). Meanwhile, government spending reached Rp493.8 trillion, up 41.9% (yoy). As a result, the fiscal balance for the January–February 2026 period recorded a budget deficit of Rp135 trillion (0.53% of GDP) and a primary balance deficit of Rp35.9 trillion. Budget financing realization reached Rp164.2 trillion, down 33.2% from the same period last year. (MoF, Bloomberg)
In yesterday’s SRBI auction, Bank Indonesia set the total amount awarded at Rp8.0 trillion, indicating stronger liquidity absorption compared with the two SRBI auctions held last week (4 and 6 March), which recorded a combined awarded amount of Rp5.5 trillion (Rp1.5 trillion + Rp4.0 trillion). The weighted average yield (WAY) for the 12-month SRBI was recorded at 5.32%, increasing by approximately 11 bps from 5.21% in the previous Friday’s auction.
Bloomberg data showed that the Rupiah weakened by 0.14% against the US Dollar, moving from Rp16,863/US$ on Tuesday to Rp16,886/US$ yesterday.
Bond Market Preview (Thursday,03/12)
As of this morning, global indicators point to negative sentiment for the bond market, reflected in the surge in US Treasury (UST) yields and the increase in Indonesia’s Credit Default Swap (CDS) level. The 5-year and 10-year UST yields each rose by 6 bps from the previous day to 3.79% and 4.21%, respectively. Meanwhile, Indonesia’s 5-year CDS increased by 1 bp to 89 bps.
Considering the above factors, we expect volatility in prices and yields of Rupiah-denominated Government Securities (SBN) to persist. Based on yield curve valuation, the following bonds may be attractive for investors: FR0091, FR0100, FR0068, FR0103, FR0108, and FR0072.
Kindly find the link to our Fixed Income Daily Market View for March 12, 2026 provided below this message. Thank you and best regards!
IND
https://research.bnisekuritas.co.id/doc-view?z=33b0bb6e-f631-47dd-a85b-ee503e85436e
ENG
https://research.bnisekuritas.co.id/doc-view?z=2e6cc994-495b-499d-987d-c3c131ebc55a
