Today’s highlights:
Markets keep an eye on Indonesia’s 4Q25 GDP (TRIM: +5.40% y-y, cons: +5.10% y-y, prev: +5.04% y-y), while Finance Minister Purbaya was optimistic of +5.45% figure—materializing without BPS’s intervention, he added. From US, ISM Services PMI exceeded consensus (curr: 53.8, cons: 53.5, prev: 53.8), reflecting 19th consecutive month of sectoral expansion. From domestic, Purbaya projected tax revenues at IDR2,492tn this year (2026 State Budget: IDR2,357tn), if economy ran well and tax restitution softened by much.
From the bond market, FR 86, 56, 37, and 99 are currently the cheapest based on our yield curve model. Last national business day, the dollar index was closed at 97.62 (+0.2%). Rupiah was depreciated by 0.1% at USDIDR at 16,777. The 10yr UST yield increased by 0.8bps to 4.27% and 10yr INDOGBR decreased by 2.0bps to 6.31% – the spread between the two was at 204bps.
Economy: In Jan’26, US ISM Services PMI was above consensus (curr: 53.8, cons: 53.5, prev: 53.8)
The figure reflected 19th consecutive month of sectoral expansion. Business Activity/Production rose to 57.4 (prev: 55.2), followed by Supplier Deliveries (curr: 54.2, prev: 51.8), reflecting improving economy. At the same time, New Orders and Employment remained at expansionary areas, standing at 53.1 (prev: 56.5) and 50.3 (prev: 51.7). Source: Kontan
Economy: Indonesia’s Finance Minister projected tax revenues to surpass State Budget
Finance Minister Purbaya projected that tax revenue in 2026 had the potential to reach IDR2,492tn (2026 State Budget: IDR2,357tn. This optimism followed a significant growth of +30.8% y-y in Jan’26. The projection was based on the assumption of stable economic conditions and a decrease in tax restitution values, which were expected to drop to ~IDR270tn. In addition to being driven by the low-base effect from 2025, this achievement was supported by improvements in the tax collection system through the refinement of the Coretax system, as well as expansion of digital infrastructure bandwidth, which was scheduled for completion by May’26 to minimize technical disruptions. Source: Kontan
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