GOTO delivered a strong 3Q25, with adjusted EBITDA beating estimates, rising 239.5% YoY to Rp516bn, while adjusted PBT turned positive for the first time. Fintech continued to drive growth with record loan book expansion and strong GoPay adoption, offsetting weak ODS GTV growth that is expected to inflect in 4Q25. Management raised FY25 adjusted EBITDA guidance to Rp1.8-1.9trn, reflecting rising confidence as new product initiatives, continued fintech growth, and ecosystem synergies strengthen overall performances into 2026.
Strong 3Q25 beating estimates. 3Q25 core GTV grew 42.9% YoY to Rp102.8trn, unchanged from 2Q25 growth rate, with total GTV rising 28.5% YoY to Rp176.5trn, 11% above our estimates. Net revenues grew 20.6% YoY to Rp4.7trn, with net revenue take rate of 2.7%, in-line with ours. Adjusted EBITDA beat estimates (9M25 at 84% of our FY25F) and improved further to Rp516bn in 3Q25 (+239.5% YoY) from Rp427bn in 2Q25, from 9.9% of net revenues in 2Q25 to 10.9% in 3Q25. Adjusted PBT turned positive for the first time at Rp62bn with net losses narrowing sharply to Rp49bn in 3Q25 from Rp222bn in 2Q25. E-Commerce service fee grew 23.0% YoY to Rp211bn in 3Q25.
Fintech adjusted EBITDA rose 55% QoQ. Fintech delivered another strong quarter with core GTV growth of 47.5% QoQ and outstanding consumer loan book growth of +75.6%/+15.7% YoY/QoQ to Rp7.8trn, ahead of the Dec 25 guidance of Rp8trn. The rising GoPay adoption continues to drive MTUs to 24.2m (+29% YoY) in 3Q25. Lending revenues grew 83.7% YoY to Rp1.0trn in 3Q25, making up 67.2% of total fintech revenues. This drove adjusted EBITDA to a new high of Rp136bn in 3Q25 (+54.7% QoQ), beating our estimate (9M25/FY25 at 84%).
ODS: revenue miss, profit beat. ODS core GTV growth slowed further to 2.4% YoY in 3Q25 from 8.8% YoY in 2Q25, with mobility/delivery core GTV decelerating to 0.5%/3.6% YoY from 10.4%/7.8% YoY largely due to macro weakness. Net revenue growth, however, only weakened to 10.5% YoY in 3Q25 from 13.4% YoY in 2Q25 as net revenue take rate increased 90bps QoQ to 19.1%. Ads revenue registered 15.2% QoQ increase to Rp144bn (2.0% of Food GMV). As such, despite the weaker GTV growth, adjusted EBITDA still improved to Rp336bn in 3Q25 from Rp328bn in 2Q25, beating our estimates (9M25/FY25F at 84%).
Guidance upgrade. Management raised 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance to Rp1.8-1.9trn from Rp1.4-1.6trn, implying Rp464-564bn guidance for 4Q25, ahead of our Rp1.5trn forecast for 2025F. It also expects ODS GTV growth to bottom in 3Q25 with accelerations expected in 4Q25 amidst new products and strategy initiatives.
Buy rating with Rp106 PT. The YTD share price decline of 20%, lagging the JCI by 35%, offers a compelling entry point given the strong 3Q25 and the anticipated acceleration in growth and profitability as new product initiatives and ecosystem synergies materialize.
