A week ahead, markets are anticipating Indonesia’s 1Q25 GDP (TRIM: +4.70% y-y, cons: +4.90% y-y, prev: +5.02% y-y). Weaker figure was due to seasonality and high base effects. From US, Trump kept signaling toned down tensions with China, where he mentioned destructive effects for both countries. From domestic, a.o. 30 Apr, foreign inflows were mainly seen in SRBI (curr: +IDR4.15tn wtd).

From the bond market, FR 81, 40, 84, and 105, are currently the cheapest based on our yield curve model. Last national business day, the dollar index was closed at 100.03 (+0.6%). Rupiah was appreciated by 1.0% at USDIDR at 16,438. The UST yield was up by +14.6bps to 4.31% and 10yr INDOGBR was up by +0.0bps to 6.88% – the spread between the two was at 257bps.

Economy: Trump reiterated his points to lower tariffs for China

The President said that he would lower tariffs for China at some point, as current practice hurt both countries. It should be noted that Trump put 145% reciprocal rates for China, while China hit back at US using 125% rates. Furthermore, Trump also noted China’s economic pains, by looking at latest PMI figures. Source: Bloomberg

Economy: BI published updates on IDR stability indicators

A.o. 30 Apr, Indonesia’s 5yr CDS premium was up by +3.20bps w-w, reaching 97.18bps. On wtd basis, 30 Apr saw net foreign inflows at +IDR4.15tn, with SRBI, govt. bonds, and stocks contributing by +IDR3.95tn, +IDR0.22tn, and -IDR0.01tn, respectively. Since the beginning of this year, net flows in stocks were at -IDR49.56tn, followed by SRBI at -IDR12.05tn, and govt. bonds at +IDR23.01tn. Source: Bank Indonesia