Bond Market Review (Wednesday,04/29)
Prices of Government Debt Securities (SUN) extended their weakening trend in yesterday’s trading session. PHEI data showed that the yield on the 5-year SUN benchmark (FR0109) increased by 20 basis points (bps) to 6.82%, while the yield on the 10-year SUN benchmark (FR0108) rose by 13 bps to 6.89%. According to Bloomberg data, the 10-year SUN yield curve (GIDN10YR) increased by 11 bps to 6.90%. The 10-year yield has exceeded the upper bound of our weekly estimated range of 6.59%–6.86%.
Outright traded transaction volume in Government Securities (SBN) reached Rp31.3 trillion yesterday, lower than the previous day’s volume of Rp48.6 trillion. FR0109 and PBS032 were the two most actively traded series in the secondary market, with transaction volumes of Rp9.0 trillion and Rp3.4 trillion, respectively. Meanwhile, outright transaction volume for corporate bonds totaled Rp7.7 trillion.
At yesterday’s SRBI auction, Bank Indonesia (BI) set the total amount awarded at Rp27.0 trillion. Last week, BI conducted one SRBI auction (24 April) with a total awarded amount of Rp45.5 trillion. The weighted average yield (WAY) for the 12-month SRBI stood at 6.22%, increasing by 31 bps compared with 5.91% at the 24 April auction. On a cumulative basis, SRBI issuance has reached Rp392.5 trillion year-to-date, while maturities through end-April are estimated at Rp165.5 trillion.
Bloomberg data showed that the Rupiah weakened by 0.48% against the US Dollar, moving from Rp17,243/US$ on Tuesday to Rp17,326/US$ yesterday.
Bond Market Preview (Thursday,04/30)
The Federal Reserve noted that recent indicators suggest economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace, supported by resilient consumer spending and continued strength in business fixed investment, although activity in the housing sector has remained weak. The Fed also highlighted that job gains have remained low, partly reflecting slower labor force growth, while labor demand has clearly softened.
On inflation, the Fed stated that inflation has risen recently and remains elevated relative to its 2 percent longer-run goal, reflecting increases in global energy prices and the effects of tariffs, with total and core PCE inflation in March at 3.5 percent and 3.2 percent, respectively.
The FOMC decided to leave the policy rate unchanged, assessing the current stance as appropriate, while emphasizing that policy remains data-dependent and not on a preset course. The Fed further noted that the economic outlook remains highly uncertain, with developments in the Middle East contributing to elevated uncertainty, and that it will remain attentive to risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
As of this morning, global indicators point to negative sentiment in the bond market, reflected in higher US Treasury (UST) yields and an increase in Indonesia’s Credit Default Swap (CDS) spreads. The 5-year and 10-year UST yields increased by 8 bps and 6 bps from the previous day to 4.05% and 4.42%, respectively. Meanwhile, Indonesia’s 5-year CDS rose by 1 bp to 90 bps. Upward pressure from energy prices has intensified, as reflected in Brent oil prices rising 7.76% from the previous day to US$119.9 per barrel, according to Bloomberg data as of this morning.
The combination of higher global yields, rising energy prices, and continued pressure on the Rupiah suggests that both external and domestic tightening forces are reinforcing pressures on bond yields. Taking the above factors into account, we expect volatility to increase. Based on yield-curve valuation, the following bonds may be attractive for investors: FR0101, FR0082, FR0109, FR0100, FR0103, and FR0108.
Kindly find the link to our Fixed Income Daily Market View for April 30, 2026 provided below this message. Thank you and best regards!
IND
https://research.bnisekuritas.co.id/doc-view?z=382304f9-e614-4511-8504-0755c4b4efed
ENG
https://research.bnisekuritas.co.id/doc-view?z=6e1d9de8-4330-47ab-b457-6033fa232ffe
