Bond Market Review (Friday,03/27)
Prices of Government Debt Securities (SUN) ended mixed in the final trading session of last week. PHEI data showed that the yield on the 5-year SUN benchmark (FR0109) declined by 2 basis points (bps) to 6.56%, while the yield on the 10-year SUN benchmark (FR0108) fell by 5 bps to 6.83%. According to Bloomberg data, the 10-year SUN yield curve (GIDN10YR) was unchanged at 6.86%.
Outright traded transaction volume in Government Securities (SBN) reached Rp27.3 trillion yesterday, relatively unchanged compared with the previous day’s volume of Rp27.1 trillion. PBS030 and FR0109 were the two most actively traded series in the secondary market, with transaction volumes of Rp4.1 trillion and Rp3.1 trillion, respectively. Meanwhile, outright transaction volume for corporate bonds totaled Rp12.9 trillion.
Foreign investors recorded net selling of Rp20.6 trillion in the equity market during the period 25–26 March 2026, reflecting significant selling pressure after the domestic market reopened following the long holiday. In the Bank Indonesia Rupiah Securities (SRBI) market, foreign investors also recorded net selling of Rp1.1 trillion during the same period. Meanwhile, in the SBN market, based on DJPPR settlement data, foreign investors recorded net selling of Rp2.9 trillion. As a result, aggregate foreign investor flows during the period were estimated at a net sell of Rp24.6 trillion. On a cumulative basis from the beginning of 2026 through 26 March 2026, foreign investors recorded net selling of Rp29.1 trillion in equities, net selling of Rp29.8 trillion in SBN, and net buying of Rp32.56 trillion in SRBI (BI, DJPPR, IDX).
Last week, Bank Indonesia conducted two SRBI auctions (25 and 27 March) with a total awarded amount of Rp12.60 trillion (Rp3.60 trillion and Rp9.00 trillion), higher than the two previous weeks’ auctions (11 and 13 March), which recorded aggregate absorption of Rp8.15 trillion (Rp8.00 trillion and Rp0.15 trillion). For the 12-month tenor, the SRBI weighted average yield (WAY) stood at 5.50% at the 27 March auction, up by approximately 17 bps compared with the 13 March 2026 auction.
Bloomberg data showed that the Rupiah weakened by 0.45% against the US Dollar, moving from Rp16,904/US$ on Thursday to Rp16,980/US$ on Friday.
Bond Market Preview (Monday,03/30)
As of Friday’s close, global indicators pointed to somewhat negative sentiment for the Indonesian bond market. Indonesia’s 5-year Credit Default Swap (CDS) increased by 2 bps from the previous day to 103 bps. Meanwhile, the 5-year US Treasury (UST) yield declined by 2 bps to 4.06%, while the 10-year UST yield rose by 2 bps to 4.44%.
On a week-over-week basis, the 10-year UST yield increased by 5 bps, Indonesia’s 5-year CDS rose by 1 bp, and the Rupiah weakened by 0.31% against the US Dollar. In line with these conditions, the 10-year SUN yield curve (GIDN10YR) still recorded a weekly decline of 1 bp to 6.86%.
Developments in geopolitical conditions and global energy prices will remain key factors for investors, particularly regarding the direction of central bank policies. The normalization of liquidity needs in the domestic market following the Nyepi Day and Eid al-Fitr holiday periods is expected to support increased demand for investment instruments.
Taking the above factors into account, we expect volatility in prices and yields of Rupiah-denominated Government Securities (SBN) to persist. We project the weekly range for the 10-year SUN yield for the period of 30 March – 3 April 2026 at 6.78%–6.98%. Based on yield curve valuation, the following bonds may be attractive for investors: FR0091, FR0096, FR0100, FR0068, FR0103, and FR0108.
Kindly find the link to our Fixed Income Daily Market View for March 30, 2026 provided below this message. Thank you and best regards!
IND
https://research.bnisekuritas.co.id/doc-view?z=3f0cf4b6-ef2c-46af-a8cc-7a460d09bcd2
ENG
https://research.bnisekuritas.co.id/doc-view?z=51996172-eb7b-458b-b65c-74db47254ea4
