Fixed InSight
Today’s highlights:
US data releases offered mixed picture of economy. In Nov’25, US ADP Employment was below consensus (curr: -32k m-m, cons: +47k m-m, prev: -10k m-m), driven by small businesses (curr: -120k m-m). It may carry a significant weight to Fed’s decision this month, as official labor data were still delayed. On the other hand, ISM Services PMI was stronger-than-expected (curr: 52.6, cons: 52.1, prev: 52.4). From domestic, OECD emphasized the importance of MBG. But they did not recommend debt financing to succeed all prioritized programs. The govt. should pursue tax base expansion instead.
From the bond market, FR 84, 86, 56, and 99 are currently the cheapest based on our yield curve model. Last national business day, the dollar index was closed at 98.85 (-0.5%). Rupiah was depreciated by 0.0% at USDIDR at 16,628. The 10yr UST yield decreased by -2.3bps to 4.06% and 10yr INDOGBR decreased by -4.0bps to 6.26% – the spread between the two was at 220bps.
Economy: In Nov’25, US ADP Employment was the worst since Mar’23 (curr: -32k m-m, cons: +47k m-m, prev: -10k m-m)
ADP said that employers weathered cautious consumers and uncertain macro environment. While the declines were broad-based, the primary driver was small businesses, facing -120k m-m—the steepest decrease since May’20. By industry, pressures came from professional & business services (curr: -26k m-m), information (curr: -20k m-m), and mfg. (curr: -18k m-m). Source: Bloomberg
Economy: In Nov’25, US ISM Services PMI was stronger-than-expected (curr: 52.6, cons: 52.1, prev: 52.4)
Business Activity/Production and Employment indexes rose to 54.5 (prev: 54.3) and 48.9 (prev: 48.2), respectively. Prices pressure also moderated to 65.4 (prev: 70.0). Meanwhile, Supplier Deliveries increased to 54.1 (prev: 50.8), driven by recent US govt. shutdown, causing airflight disruptions. Source: ISM
Economy: OECD suggested Indonesia not to add debts to finance Prabowo’s prioritized programs
OECD emphasized the importance of Free Nutritious Meal (MBG) to improve people’s nutrition intakes and eradicate stunting. However, they would not recommend debt financing to succeed the President’s prioritized programs. Lifting up revenue sides was a better option instead. It was not necessarily about raising tax rates, although OECD was still open for the option. Indonesia’s govt. could broad tax base, e.g. reduce tax exemption groups in VAT. Source: Kontan
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