Rupiah-denominated assets opened December on a firmer tone. The JCI rose +0.5% to 8,549 (+20.7% YTD), supported by gains in the consumer cyclical and energy sectors, following the release of several domestic macro indicators. Trading activity reached Rp21.9tn, keeping the 2025 average daily turnover at Rp17.1tn. Foreign investors, however, continued with net outflows, recording Rp120.6bn, extending the YTD outflows to Rp29.7tn. Across the region, Asian equity indices were mixed: the Hang Seng gained +0.7% (+29.8% YTD), while the Nikkei fell by 1.9% (+23.6% YTD) after Japan s final Manufacturing PMI printed 48.7, signaling a fifth month of contraction but at the slowest pace since August.
Three key domestic data releases supported the market sentiment: 1) CPI inflation eased to 2.72% YoY in November (vs. 2.86% prior), reflecting continued stability in price pressures and sustained purchasing power. Core inflation held steady at 2.4% YoY, with the monthly inflation slowing to 0.2%, in line with softer gold prices. 2) The manufacturing PMI accelerated sharply to 53.3 from 51.2 in October, marking the highest reading since February and the fourth consecutive month of expansions. 3) The trade balance posted a USD 2.4bn surplus in October (vs. USD 4.3bn in September), as exports fell by 2.3% YoY amid weaker external demand and lower commodity prices, while imports declined by 1.15% YoY after a strong growth in September. Over Jan Oct, Indonesia s trade surplus reached USD 35.88bn, with exports growing by 6.96% YoY and imports rising by 2.19% YoY.
Moreover, in the bond market, INDOGB rebounded, led by the short-to-mid tenors, while foreign investors booked a modest net buy of Rp0.3tn (vs. Rp2.3tn prior), based on the CTP PLTE data. The 5-yr FR104 yield fell to 5.79% ( 3.9 bps) and the 10-yr FR103 yield declined to 6.26% ( 3.8 bps). The long end remained stable, with the 15-yr FR106 at 6.45% (+1.0 bps) and the 20-yr FR107 unchanged at 6.54%. Offshore, the 5-yr USD global bond yield edged up to 4.38% (+0.2 bps), while Indonesia s 5-yr CDS rose slightly to 74.12. Meanwhile, the rupiah was stable at Rp16,659/USD (+0.01%; 3.46% YTD).
According to IDX s OTC trading report, Indonesian government bond trading activity continued to moderate on the first trading day of December, Monday (1-Dec), with total volume declining further to Rp11.6tn (vs. Rp26.6tn on 28-Nov). The figure remained well below both the prior week s daily average of Rp32.5tn and the 2025 year-to-date (YTD) average of Rp32.8tn, and also fell beneath the 2024 daily average of Rp21.7tn. The 6.4-yr FR0091 series (maturing on 15-Apr-32) led market activity, recording Rp1.5tn in volume. Its price fell to 100.25 (-2.67%), pushing the yield higher to 6.32% (+52.08 bps). This was followed by the 3.4-yr FR0101 series (maturing on 15-Apr-29), which booked Rp1.4tn in transactions. Its price inched up to 103.65 (+0.48%), driving the yield lower to 5.67% (-16.42 bps).
The DMO data as of 28-Nov showed foreign SBN holdings broadly unchanged at Rp872.2tn (13.36% of outstanding). YTD, onshore banks remain the largest net buyers (+Rp154.5tn), followed by BI (+Rp146.1tn), insurance & pension funds (+Rp125.0tn), mutual funds (+Rp46.8tn), and others (+Rp24.6tn). Foreign and retail investors remain net sellers at Rp4.5tn and Rp2.3tn, respectively.
The government will hold a conventional bond auction on 2-Dec, targeting Rp23tn (maximum: Rp34.5tn), offering three SPN series and six reopened FR series. Based on our model, we expect the incoming bids to stabilize at ca. Rp76tn (range: Rp71tn 81tn), slightly below the Rp78.9tn in the 18-Nov auction.
Domestic Corp Bond Market
On the corporate side, trading activity weakened on Monday (1-Dec), with total volume declining to Rp2.5tn (vs. Rp4.1tn on 28-Nov). The figure remained below the prior week s daily average of Rp6.1tn and fell beneath the 2025 YTD average of Rp3.8tn, while still standing above the 2024 daily average of Rp2.05tn.
The LPPI03BCN1 series (maturing on 4-Oct-29), rated idA, led the segment with Rp270bn in trading volume. The bond slipped to 106.72 (-2.40%), pushing the yield sharply higher to 8.91% (+76.39 bps). This was followed by the IJEE02B series (maturing on 8-Jul-28), rated idA, which posted Rp220bn in turnover. Its price inched up to 107.17 (+1.61%), driving the yield significantly lower to 8.47% (-71.74 bps).
