Rupiah-denominated assets rallied on Monday (20-Oct), supported by renewed foreign fund inflows into both bonds and equities. The Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) rebounded sharply by +2.19% to 8,088.98 (vs. -2.57% prior; -4.17% WoW), led by gains in the finance (+3.38%), transportation (+3.10%), energy (+2.76%), and industrial (+2.45%) sectors. The daily turnover eased to Rp22.8tn (vs. Rp28.5tn prior; YTD avg.: Rp16.3tn). Regionally, sentiments improved across Asia, with the Nikkei 225 Index surging by +3.37%, following Japan s new coalition deal, while the Hang Seng Index gained +2.42% after comments from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signaling an effort to prevent further tariff escalation with China.
In the bond market, INDOGB yields slightly lowered, supported by foreign net inflows of Rp1.26tn (vs. -Rp0.63tn prior; -Rp10.3tn WoW). According to Bloomberg, the 5-yr FR104 closed at 104.83, yielding 5.33% (+0.5 bps); the 10-yr FR103 at 105.85, yielding 5.95% (-0.5 bps); the 15-yr FR106 at 107.23, yielding 6.36% (+0.2 bps); and the 20-yr FR107 at 107.24, yielding 6.47% (-1.3 bps). Offshore, the 5-yr USD global bond yield edged down to 4.35% (-0.5 bps), while Indonesia s 5-yr CDS rose slightly to 82.38 bps (+0.35 bps). Meanwhile, the rupiah strengthened modestly by +0.06% to Rp16,575/USD (vs. -0.19% WoW; YTD: -2.94%).
According to IDX s OTC trading report, Indonesian government bond trading activity eased further, with total volume declining to Rp27.2tn (vs. Rp31.0tn on 17-Oct). The figure remained well below both the prior week s daily average of Rp37.4tn and the 2025 year-to-date (YTD) daily average of Rp32.9tn, yet stood comfortably above the 2024 daily average of Rp21.7tn. The 5-yr FR0104 series (maturing on 15-Jul-30) led market activity, recording Rp8.5tn in trading volume (vs. Rp2.3tn previously). Its price inched up to 104.87 (+0.07%), driving the yield slightly lower to 5.32% (-1.82 bps). This was followed by the 1.2-yr PBS003 series (maturing on 15-Jan-27), which booked Rp3.5tn in trading volume (vs. Rp3.9tn previously). Its price slipped to 101.09 (-0.70%), pushing the yield higher to 5.07% (+58.16 bps).
As of 16-Oct, foreign ownership of government bonds stood at Rp893.9tn (13.93% of outstanding). Year-to-date, Bank Indonesia remains the largest net buyer (+Rp142.7tn), followed by onshore banks (+Rp101tn), insurance & pension funds (+Rp75.6tn), mutual funds (+Rp24.4tn), and foreign investors (+Rp17.3tn), while retail investors recorded a net sell of Rp0.9tn.
The government will hold another conventional bond auction on 21-Oct, targeting Rp23tn (maximum: Rp34.5tn), unchanged from the previous auction. The offer includes three SPN series (1-mo, 3-mo, and 1-yr SPNs) and six reopened FR series (5.4-yr FR109, 10.5-yr FR0108, 14.8-yr FR106, 19.8-yr FR107, 28.7-yr FR102, and 38.7-yr FR0105). Based on our model, the total bids are expected to remain strong, ranging Rp150tn 160tn.
Domestic Corp Bond Market
On the corporate side, bond trading activity continued to pick up on Monday (20-Oct), with total volume rising sharply to Rp5.0tn (vs. Rp3.8tn on 17-Oct). The figure exceeded the prior week s daily average of Rp3.2tn and surpassed the 2025 YTD average of Rp3.9tn, while still remaining comfortably above the 2024 daily average of Rp2.05tn.
The BOLD03A series (maturing on 20-Oct-26), rated idA+, led the segment with Rp491bn in trading volume. The bond s price remained relatively flat at 99.85, yielding 6.91% (+0.55 bps). This was followed by the SMOPPM02ACN2 series (maturing on 29-Jul-28), rated idA+(sy), which recorded Rp320bn in trading volume. Its price moderated to 101.02 (-2.70%), lifting the yield significantly higher to 9.58% (+113.16 bps).
Pefindo has affirmed idA ratings to PT TBS Energi Utama Tbk (TBS) and its outstanding bonds as well as its idA(sy) rating to TBS outstanding Sukuk Wakalah I. Outlook for the corporate rating is stable. According to Pefindo, the rating reflects TBS well-diversified business, conservative capital structure as well as strong business profile from new businesses. Meanwhile, the rating is constrained by the risk of developing new projects and exposure to fluctuating commodity prices.
Pefindo has assigned idAAA rating with stable outlook to PT Bank Permata Tbk. According to Pefindo, the rating mainly reflects a very strong likelihood of support from its Parent, Bangkok Bank Public Company Limited (Bangkok Bank). Meanwhile, according to Pefindo, Bank Permata s standalone credit profile reflects its very strong market position and very strong capitalization but is constrained by a moderate asset quality profile and tight competition in the banking industry.
