US was threatened by the govt. shutdown next month. Democrats requested for meeting with Trump, but Trump saw it not to result in any impacts. On another occasion, Trump introduced “Trump Gold Card”, offering US residency permits for USD1mn. From China, the country opened a new rout via Arctic ice, reducing the shipping duration by 18days. From domestic, the govt. would launch Digital Social Protection, to reduce mistargeted distribution, estimated at IDR14—17tn. On flows, a.o. 18 Sep’25, net outflows hit -IDR8.12tn wtd, with govt. bonds, SRBI, and stocks contributing by -IDR5.49tn wtd, -IDR2.79tn wtd, and +IDR0.16tn wtd, respectively.
From the bond market, FR 84, 86, 99, and 76 are currently the cheapest based on our yield curve model. Last national business day, the dollar index was closed at 97.64 (0.3%). Rupiah was depreciated by 0.5% at USDIDR at 16,588. The 10yr UST yield was rose by 2.3bps at 4.13% and 10yr INDOGBR was rose by 2.7bps at 6.30% – the spread between the two was at 218bps.
Economy: Govt. shutdown threatened US
The federal funding would expire by 30 Sep’25. However, both temporary funding plans—Republicans (until 21 Nov’25) and Democrats (until 31 Oct’25—failed to pass in Senate. The deadlock centered on Democrats’ push for higher healthcare spending, which Republicans opposed. Congressional Democratic leaders sought a meeting with President Trump, though he dismissed the effort as unlikely to have any impact. Source: Bloomberg
Economy: Trump introduced more expensive visa fees
Last weekend, Trump slapped H-1B visa applicants with USD100k fee. The President also unveiled the “Trump Gold Card”, priced at USD1mn for US residency, with businesses able to purchase permits at USD2mn per employee. In addition, a new platinum-level card was introduced, costing USD5mn and granting holders entry to the US for up to 270 days per year without being subject to US taxes on non-US income. Source: Bloomberg
Economy: China bet on Arctic Shipping to cut Europe transit by 10 days
China’s Haijie Shipping would launch the Europe Arctic Express, a new route linking East Asia and Europe via Arctic ice. The route could cut travel time by 10 days compared with the Suez Canal, where it would take 18 days via the Arctic, compared to about 30 days using the Suez Canal. It was considered safer as well, avoiding piracy-prone waters near Somalia and the Arabian Peninsula. Beyond trade efficiency, the route carried geopolitical weight, reducing reliance on the Malacca and Suez straits, longstanding chokepoints of global commerce. Source: eunews
Economy: Indonesia’s govt. would launch Digital Social Protection Pilot Program
The govt. launched a pilot program for the Digitalization of Social Protection as a new model for distributing social aid. The move followed findings that 45% of Family Hope Program (PKH) and food aid had been misallocated, with potential budget leakage of IDR14–17tn. Updated data from BPS revealed around 0.6mn ineligible PKH beneficiaries and 1.2mn ineligible food aid recipients. Through digitalization, the govt. aimed to ensure that social aid was delivered more effectively, efficiently, and accurately. Source: Kontan
Economy: BI published updates on IDR stability indicators
A.o. 18 Sep’25, Indonesia’s 5yr CDS premium was up by +2.45bps wtd, reaching 70.17bps. On wtd basis, 18 Sep’25 saw net foreign outflows at -IDR8.12tn, with govt. bonds, SRBI, and stocks contributing by -IDR5.49tn, -IDR2.79tn, and +IDR0.16tn, respectively. Since the beginning of this year, net flows in SRBI were at -IDR119.62tn, followed by stocks at -IDR59.73tn and govt. bonds at +IDR41.82tn. Source: Bank Indonesia
