September 15, 2025

Sustaining Gains in JCI, Rupiah, and INDOGB

Rupiah-denominated assets sustained their positive momentum on Friday. The JCI continued to climb up +1.37% to 7,854.06 (YTD: +10.9%), led by basic materials (+2.54%), technology (+1.61%), energy (+1.57%), and finance (+1.26%). The turnover held steady at Rp17.8tn (vs. Rp18.6tn prior), above the YTD daily average of Rp14.6tn, while foreign equity flows remained negative, though easing significantly to -Rp31.6bn (vs. -Rp192.4bn prior; YTD: -Rp61.7tn). The positive sentiment was supported by the government s decision to channel Rp200tn of SAL deposits into state-owned banks, hence boosting liquidity and financial sector performance. Regionally, Asian equities also traded higher, with the Nikkei 225 index rising by +0.89% to 44,768.1 (YTD: +13.5%), while the Hang Seng index rebounded by +1.17% to 26,388.2 (YTD: +29.9%), following the US CPI data, which showed inflation at +2.9% YoY in August, in line with expectations, reinforcing market conviction of a Fed rate cut at the 16 17 September FOMC.

In bonds, INDOGBs extended gains despite foreign outflows (-Rp1.49tn), with selling in both benchmark series (-Rp1.21tn) and non-benchmark series (-Rp0.28tn). According to Bloomberg, yields fell across the curve: the 5-yr FR104 trading at a yield of 5.61% (-5.6 bps), the 10-yr FR103 at 6.32% (-4.9 bps), the 15-yr FR106 at 6.75% (-5.2 bps), and the 20-yr FR107 at 6.87% (-1.0 bps). Offshore, the 5-yr USD global bond yield edged up to 4.34% (+0.7 bps), while the 5-yr CDS tightened to 68.3 bps (-1.9 bps). Moreover, the rupiah strengthened by +0.51% to Rp16,378/USD (YTD: -1.7%).

According to IDX s OTC trading report, Indonesian government bond trading activity eased on Friday (12-Sep), with total volume declining to Rp41.8tn (vs. Rp58.2tn on 11-Sep). The figure nevertheless exceeded the current week s daily average of Rp42.8tn and remained well above both the 2025 year-to-date (YTD) daily average of Rp31.7tn and the 2024 daily average of Rp21.7tn. The 5-yr FR0104 series (maturing on 15-Jul-30) continued to be the most actively traded, posting Rp10.5tn in volume (vs. Rp10.6tn previously). Its price advanced further to 103.80 (+0.14%), driving the yield lower to 5.59% (-3.55 bps). This was followed by the 10-yr FR0103 series (maturing on 15-Jul-35), which recorded Rp4.7tn in trading volume (vs. Rp6.4tn previously). The bond s price climbed further to 103.32 (+0.41%), bringing the yield down to 6.29% (-5.72 bps).

On flows, foreign ownership of government bonds declined to Rp928.5tn (14.48% of outstanding) as of 11-Sep. YTD, BI has remained the largest net buyer (+Rp137tn), followed by onshore banks (+Rp101.9tn), insurance & pension funds (+Rp58.4tn), foreign investors (+Rp51.8tn), other investors (+Rp13.5tn), mutual funds (+Rp9.5tn), and retail (+Rp1.7tn).

Weekly recap: equities eased by -0.13% (vs. +0.49% prior), bonds rallied (with the 10-yr INDOGB yield going down by -6.5bps; vs. +8.6 bps prior), the USD INDOGB yield fell -15 bps, and the rupiah strengthened by +0.25% (vs. +0.22% prior). Foreign investors posted net outflows of -Rp6.6tn in equities and -Rp3.3tn in bonds, marking another week of selling pressure.

Over the week, average daily government bond trading surged to Rp42.8tn (vs. Rp33.2tn in the prior week). The 5-yr FR0104 series remained the most actively traded benchmark, with its total weekly volume rising sharply to Rp40.0tn (vs. Rp24.2tn previously).

Domestic Corp Bond Market

On the corporate side, trading activity strengthened on Friday (12-Sep), with total volume increasing to Rp3.8tn (vs. Rp2.3tn on 11-Sep). The figure surpassed the current week s daily average of Rp2.9tn, though it remained slightly below the 2025 YTD average of Rp3.9tn, while staying above the 2024 daily average of Rp2.05tn.

The FIFA07ACN2 series (maturing on 22-Sep-26), rated AAA(idn), debuted in the secondary market and led the segment with Rp519bn in trading volume. It traded at 99.93, yielding 5.92%. This was followed by the FIFA07BCN2 series (maturing on 12-Sep-28), also rated AAA(idn), which likewise debuted in the secondary market and booked Rp337bn in volume. The bond traded at 99.90, yielding 6.19%.

Over the week, average daily corporate bond trading volume declined to Rp2.9tn (vs. Rp4.4tn in the prior week). The 1-yr BBKP02ACN2 series (maturing on 9-Sep-26), rated AAA(idn), stood out as the most actively traded corporate bond, recording a total weekly volume of Rp1.2tn.

Pefindo has affirmed idAAA(sf) rating for the Class A2 KIK EBA Bahanan Bukopin-Kumpulan Tagihan Kredit Pensiunan Yang dialihkan (BBKK01). As of the cut-off date of 31-Jul-25, the total outstanding pool was Rp343.6bn, comprising class A2 of Rp224bn and unrated class B of Rp119.6bn, accounting for 9.2% of the original KIK EBA at the issuance of Rp1.3tn. According to Pefindo, the rating reflects the strong transaction structure with a direct deduction scheme, the superior credit profile of PT Taspen (Persero) as the pension fund provider, the high yield nature of the underlying assets, as well as credit enhancements in the form of Class B EBA and insurance coverage. Meanwhile, the rating is limited by the weakening insures risk profile.

Pefindo has affirmed idAAA rating for PT Angkasa Pura Indonesia (APINDO) and its outstanding bonds as well as its idAAA(sy) for APINDO s outstanding sukuk. Outlook for the corporate rating is stable. According to Pefindo, APINDO s corporate rating is mainly driven by the very strong likelihood of support from PT Aviasi Pariwisata Indonesia (Persero) (injourney) as its Parent. APINDO s standalone credit profile is supported by the Company s strong competitive position as the nation s largest airport operator and strong profit margin. The rating is constrained by exposure to event-driven travel disruptions.

Pefindo has affirmed idAA rating with stable outlook to PT Bank Pembangunan Daerah Jawa Barat and Banten Tbk s (Bank BJB). Pefindo has also affirmed idAA rating for Bank BJB s Shelf Registered Bond I/2017 and its Shelf Registered Sustainability Bond I/2024, idA+ rating for the Bank s Shelf Registered Subordinated Bond I-IV as well as idA rating for the Bank s Perpetual Bond I/2024. According to Pefindo, the corporate rating reflects Bank BJB s very strong captive market in West Java and Banten provinces, very strong capitalization, and very strong liquidity profile. Meanwhile, the rating is constrained by the tight competition outside the captive market and the high NPL (non-performing loan) ratio in the productive loan segment.

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