Today’s highlights:

The govt. will issue IDR27.00tn of govt. bonds in this week’s auction, with the details as follows: SPN03251210 with indicative yield of 5.00—5.05%, SPN12260910 with indicative yield 5.10—5.15%, FR0109 with indicative yield 5.72—5.78%, FR108 with indicative yield of 6.33—6.40%, FR0106 with indicative yield of 6.71—6.79%, FR0107 with indicative yield of 6.84—6.92%, FR0102 with indicative yield of 6.85—6.95%, and FR0105 with indicative yield of 6.87—6.97%.

China recorded another record for Trade Surplus (Aug’25: +USD102.33bn, cons: +USD99.2bn, prev: +USD98.24bn). Shipments to US dropped by -33% y-y, while those to RoW demonstrated sizable gains. From India, the country’s investment in UST dropped to USD227.4bn in Jun’25 (May’25: USD235.3bn, Jun’24: USD242bn), while the central bank kept increasing its gold holding. Geopolitical tensions also fueled the behavior, as US froze Russia’s assets offshore in 2022, serving as the top reason for asset diversification. From domestic, President Prabowo conducted cabinet reshuffle. A notable point was that Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa—ex-IDIC Lead Commissioner—would serve as the Finance Minister, replacing Sri Mulyani Indrawati. While turmoil may be taking place in Indonesia’s financial markets now, we expect his decades of experience in capital markets to shape the fundamentals into a more positive outlook.

Last national business day, the dollar index was closed at 97.45 (-0.9%). Rupiah was appreciated by 0.7% at USDIDR at 16,310. The 10yr UST yield was down by -12.1bps to 4.04% and 10yr INDOGBR was down by -0.7bps to 6.39% – the spread between the two was at 235bps.

Economy: In Aug’25, China’s trade surplus hit another record (curr: +USD102.33bn, cons: +USD99.2bn, prev: +USD98.24bn)

Exports were recorded at solid level of USD321.8bn, although the growth was lower-than-expected (curr: +4.4% y-y, cons: +5.0% y-y, prev: +7.2% y-y), as shipments to US dropped by -33% y-y. Fortunately, exports to Africa by +26% y-y, Southeast Asia by +23% y-y, and EU by +10% y-y. At the same time, China’s imports were below consensus (curr: +1.3% y-y, cons: +3.0% y-y, prev: +4.1% y-y). Crude oil, iron ore, copper, and soybean still recorded y-y gains, as firms prepared for greater demand post summer season. Source: Bloomberg

Economy: Prabowo reshuffled his Cabinet, naming Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa as Finance Minister

Indonesia’s President, Prabowo, reshuffled his cabinet, appointing economist Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa as the new finance minister to replace Sri Mulyani Indrawati. Dr Purbaya, an experienced technocrat and then chairman of the Indonesia Deposit Insurance Corporation, was regarded as a steady hand for the country’s fiscal policy. The reshuffle also spanned several ministries. Abdul Kadir Karding, Minister for the Protection of Indonesian Migrant Workers, was replaced by Mukhtarudin, while Ferry Joko Juliantono took over the Cooperatives Ministry from Budi Arie Setiadi. Meanwhile, Youth and Sports Minister Dito Ariotedjo was removed, though a successor had yet to be named. At the coordinating ministry level, Budi Gunawan, who previously headed the Coordinating Ministry for Political, Legal and Security Affairs, was also dismissed without an immediate replacement. In addition, a new Ministry of Hajj and Umrah was created, with Mochamad Irfan Yusuf appointed as its first minister and Dahnil Anzar Simanjuntak serving as deputy. Source: The Straits Times

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