The total incoming bids moderated to Rp33.1tn in the 19-Aug sukuk auction, down from Rp43tn in the 5-Aug auction, though still above the YTD average of Rp31.4tn per auction. By series, the 2.9-yr PBS030 drew the strongest interest, collecting Rp10.2tn (30.9% of total), which was higher than both the previous auction s figure (Rp8.5tn) and its YTD average (Rp8.1tn). Other notable demand came from the 24.3-yr PBS038 at Rp6.1tn (18.4%) and the 9-mo SPNS at Rp5.3tn (16.1%).
Despite the relatively solid demand, the government issued only Rp9tn, in line with the initial target but lower than the Rp12tn raised in the previous auction. As a result, the weighted average cost of funds eased to 6.18% (vs. 6.30%), while the average tenor lengthened to 10 years (from 9.36 years). YTD, the gross bond issuance has reached Rp903.5tn, or 65.8% of our full-year target, based on a -2.78% of GDP deficit assumption. The investor breakdown will be available after the settlement on 21-Aug. So far this year, we estimate onshore banks have been the dominant buyers, taking Rp86.6tn (59% of issuances), followed by Bank Indonesia (Rp17.6tn or 11.9%), Others (likely hajj funds; Rp16.4tn or 11.1%), insurance & pension funds (Rp12.1tn or 8.2%), foreign investors (Rp8.8tn or 5.9%), mutual funds (Rp4.7tn or 3.1%), and retail (Rp1.7tn or 1.1%).
Following the sukuk auction, INDOGB yields moved higher in tandem with continued foreign outflows totaling -Rp4.7tn (benchmarks at -Rp1.6tn, non-benchmarks at -Rp3.1tn), based on the CTP PLTE data. According to Bloomberg, the 5-yr FR104 closed at 5.91% (+2.8 bps), the 10-yr FR103 at 6.39% (+1.7 bps), the 15-yr FR106 at 6.79% (+2.6 bps), and the 20-yr FR107 at 6.84% (+2.4 bps). In external markets, the 5-yr USD global bond yield inched up to 4.45% (+0.2 bps), while Indonesia s CDS widened slightly to 66.23 (+0.1 bps). The rupiah weakened, depreciating by -0.53% to Rp16,240/USD.
According to IDX s OTC trading report, Indonesian government bond trading activity surged on Tuesday (19-Aug), with total volume jumping to Rp40.0tn (vs. Rp25.6tn on 15-Aug), propelled by the government sukuk auction held on the same day. The figure exceeded both the prior week s daily average of Rp36.2tn and the 2025 year-to-date (YTD) daily average of Rp30.8tn, and it remained well above the 2024 daily average of Rp21.7tn. The 2.9-yr PBS030 series (maturing on 15-Jul-28) dominated flows, recording a trading volume of Rp5.6tn. Its price inched up to 100.51 (+0.03%), driving the yield lower to 5.68% (-1.14 bps). This was followed by the 5-yr FR0104 series (maturing on 15-Jul-30), which booked Rp4.4tn in trading volume (vs. Rp4.0tn previously). The bond s price slipped to 102.56 (-0.14%), lifting the yield higher to 5.89% (+3.25 bps).
Foreign ownership of government bonds stood at Rp948.5tn (14.7% of outstanding) as of 14-Aug. YTD, Bank Indonesia has been the largest net buyer (+Rp118.4tn), followed by onshore banks (+Rp88.5tn), foreign investors (+Rp71.8tn), insurers/pension funds (+Rp68.9tn), retail (+Rp36.7tn), Others (+Rp20.8tn), and mutual funds (+Rp8tn).
The JCI slipped -0.45% to 7,862.95 on Tuesday, with the daily turnover moderating to Rp18.5tn. Foreign investors continued to post net inflows of Rp863bn (vs. +Rp1.3tn previously), trimming the YTD net outflows to Rp54.3tn. Regionally, Asian markets were mixed. The Nikkei 225 rose +0.39% to 43,546.29 (vs. +1.71% previously, YTD: +10.66%) due to stronger domestic momentum, while the Hang Seng Index fell -0.58% to 25,122.90 (vs. -0.98% previously, YTD: +24.94%) as traders remained cautious over Fed policy signals and geopolitical risks.
Bank Indonesia will announce its policy decision today. Our polling shows that most respondents (62 or 58%) expect BI to keep the policy rate unchanged at 5.35%, while the rest (45 or 42%) anticipate a 25-bps cut to 5.00%. Bloomberg s consensus is also aligned with expectations for BI to remain on hold. That said, we see room for a rate cut. The continued decline in SRBI rates signals an accommodative bias. Meanwhile, inflation remains relatively low, the rupiah is stable, and BI has consistently highlighted that economic growth is still below potential, all of which provide room for easing.
Domestic Corp Bond Market
On the corporate side, trading activity moderated on Tuesday (19-Aug), with total volume easing to Rp2.7tn (vs. Rp4.4tn on 15-Aug). The figure fell slightly below both the prior week s daily average of Rp3.0tn and the 2025 YTD average of Rp3.94tn, yet it remained comfortably above the 2024 daily average of Rp2.05tn.
The WISL03B series (maturing on 5-Jul-27), rated idA, led the segment with a trading volume of Rp317bn. The bond s price slipped to 102.51 (-0.57%), sending the yield higher to 7.30% (+31.46 bps). This was followed by the SIMORA02ACN1 series (maturing on 13-Jul-26), rated idA+(sy), which recorded Rp201bn in trading volume. Its price held relatively flat at 101.25 (+0.01%), nudging the yield slightly lower to 8.53% (-3.3s1 bps).
