Juli 4, 2025

JCI Slips Again, While Rupiah and Government Bonds Rebound

Indonesian assets showed mixed performance on Thursday (3-Jul). The Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) extended its decline, closing down 0.05% at 6,878.05, bringing its year-to-date (YTD) loss to -1.59%. Trading activity remained subdued, with the daily turnover falling to Rp8tn well below the YTD average of Rp13.3tn. Furthermore, foreign investors continued to exit the equity market, recording net outflows of Rp30bn, albeit the figure was significantly lower than the Rp1.23tn outflow the previous day. The total YTD net foreign outflows in equities now stand at Rp55.5tn. Across the region, Asian equity markets closed mixed. The Nikkei 225 edged up 0.06% to 39,785.9, supported by investor optimism despite ongoing trade concerns. Meanwhile, the Hang Seng Index dropped 0.63% to 24,069.94 after weaker-than-expected Chinese services data for June, which hit a 9-month low.

In contrast, rupiah government bonds (INDOGB) and the rupiah currency rebounded, offering some relief to the broader asset class. INDOGB rallied, the 5-yr FR104 bond yield fell by 1.4 bps to 6.23%, the 10-yr FR103 bond yield fell by 1.6 bps to 6.59%, the 15-yr FR106 bond yield fell slightly by 0.1 bps to 6.91%, and the 20-yr FR107 bond yield fell slightly by 0.1 bps to 6.99%. Meanwhile, the 10-yr USD global bond yield (Mar-2031) also fell, trading at 4.48%, or declining by 2.3 bps, whereas Indonesia s 5-yr CDS narrowed to 75.89 (-1.08 bps).Foreign investors continued being a net buyer in rupiah government bonds, reaching net inflows of +Rp1.54tn (vs. Rp1.25tn previously), which came from benchmark series (Rp579bn) and non-benchmark series (Rp965.42bn). Concurrently, Indonesia s currency reversed, the rupiah appreciated against the USD by +0.27% to Rp1,6198/USD (vs. -0.27% previously; YTD: -0.55%).

According to IDX s OTC trading report, Indonesian rupiah government bond trading activity normalized on Thursday (3-Jul), with volume easing to Rp32.7tn (vs. Rp58.4tn on 2-Jul). The figure remained slightly above the previous week s average daily trading volume of Rp30.0tn, the 2025 year-to-date (YTD) daily average of Rp29.7tn, and well above the 2024 daily average of Rp21.7tn. The 10-yr FR0103 series (maturing on 15-Jul-35) retained its position as the most actively traded government bond, booking a volume of Rp5.5tn (vs. Rp14.0tn previously). Its price eased to 100.30 (-0.20%), nudging the yield higher to 6.71% (+2.76 bps). Close behind, the 1.5-yr PBS003 series (maturing on 15-Jan-27) recorded a trading volume of Rp3.3tn (vs. Rp3.9tn previously). The bond s price edged down to 100.25 (-0.55%), lifting the yield to 5.83% (+37.72 bps).

Based on the DMO data (as of 2-Jul), foreign holdings in government bonds have increased to Rp921.5tn, or 14.61% of the total outstanding. Year-to-date, Bank Indonesia has been the biggest net buyer of government bonds (amounting to +Rp107tn), followed by insurance and pension funds (+Rp53.2tn), foreign investors (+Rp44.8tn), retail investors (+Rp44.7tn), onshore banks (+Rp13.2tn), and other investors (+Rp10.7tn). Meanwhile, the only investor type that was a net seller was mutual funds, with a net sell of -Rp4.0tn.

Domestic Corp Bond Market

On the corporate side, trading activity sustained an uptrend on Thursday (3-Jul), with volume rising slightly to Rp6.7tn (vs. Rp5.7tn on 2-Jul). The figure slightly surpassed the prior week s average daily volume of Rp6.6tn and remained well above both the 2025 YTD daily average of Rp3.65tn and the 2024 daily average of Rp2.05tn.

The LPPI03BCN3 series (maturing on 21-May-28), rated idA, led the corporate bond segment with a trading volume of Rp307bn. Its price climbed to 103.50 (+2.84%), sending the yield sharply lower to 8.86% (-113.04 bps). Following this, the PJAA03ACN1 series (maturing on 9-Jul-27), rated idA+, posted a trading volume of Rp305bn. The bond s price remained relatively unchanged at 102.92 (+0.01%), with the yield stable at 6.94% (-0.71 bps).

Pefindo has assigned idA+ rating for PT Barito Pacific Tbk s (BRPT) proposed Shelf-Registered Bond IV (SR Bond IV) of a maximum of Rp3tn. The proceeds from the issuance of Phase I of Rp1tn will be used for refinancing purposes for its Shelf-registered Bond III Barito Pacific Phase II Year 2023 Series A and partial repayment of BRPT s debt to PT Bank Negara Indonesia (Persero) Tbk.

Pefindo has affirmed idAAA ratings to PT Astra Sedaya Finance (ASF) and its Shelf Registration Bond V Phase IV Series B. Outlook for the corporate rating is stable. At the same time, Pefindo has assigned idAAA rating for its Shelf-Registration Bond VII with the maximum amount of Rp12tn.

Pefindo has assigned idAAA and idAAA(sy) ratings to PT Permodalan Nasional Madani (PNM) s proposed Shelf Registered Social Orange Bond I with the maximum issuance amount of Rp6tn and Shelf Registered Sukuk Mudharabah Social Orange I with the maximum issuance amount of Rp10tn. At the same time Pefindo has raised PNM s rating to idAAA from idAA+ . Outlook for the corporate rating is stable. Pefindo has also raised the rating of PNM s outstanding bonds and sukuk to idAAA from idAA+ . Pefindo s rating action reflects the stronger likelihood of support for PNM from the government as its ultimate shareholder, considering the Company s more strategic role in the government s mission and program.

Pefindo has assigned idA- rating to PT Bank Victoria International Tbk (Bank Victoria) s proposed Shelf Registered Bond IV with the maximum issuance amount of Rp1.5tn. At the same time, Pefindo has affirmed idA- ratings to Bank Victoria and its outstanding bond, as well as affirmed idBBB ratings to Bank Victoria s outstanding subordinated debts. Outlook for the corporate rating is stable .

Pefindo has affirmed idAAA ratings to PT Sarana Multigriya FInansial (Persero) (SMF) and its outstanding bonds, as well as idAAA(sy) ratings to its outstanding Sukuk. Outlook for the corporate rating is stable. At the same time, Pefindo has assigned idAAA ratings to SMF s proposed Shelf-Registration Bond VIII Year 2025 with a maximum amount of Rp24tnn and Shelf-Registration Social Bond II Year 2025 with a maximum amount of Rp11tn, as well as its idAAA(sy) ratings to the proposed Shelf-Registration Sukuk Musyarakah II Year 2025 with a maximum amount of Rp2.5tn.

Pefindo has assigned idA rating for PT Wahana Inti Selaras (WISL) s proposed Shelf-Registered (SR) Bond I Year 2025 with a maximum amount of Rp4tn. The proceeds of its bond issuance will be used for working capital needs. At the same time, Pefindo has affirmed idA to WISL and its outstanding bonds. Outlook for the corporate rating is stable.

Pefindo has affirmed idAAA rating to PT Bahana Pembinaan Usaha Indonesia (Persero) (BPUI) and its outstanding Medium-Term Notes (MTN). Outlook for the corporate rating is stable.

Pefindo has assigned idAAA ratings to PT Bank Mandiri Taspen and its proposed Shelf Registered (SR) bond II Year 2025 with a maximum amount of Rp3tn. Outlook for the corporate rating is stable.

Pefindo has assigned idAAA rating to PT Adira Dinamika Multi Finance Tbk (Adira Finance) s proposed Shelf Registration Bond VII of a maximum Rp8tn and its idAAA(sy) rating to the proposed Shelf Registration Sukuk Mudharabah VI of a maximum Rp2tn.

Pefindo has assigned idAA rating for PT BRI Multifinance Indonesia (BRI Finance) s Shelf Registered (SR) bond I Year 2025 with the maximum issuance of Rp1.7tn, including the phase I issuance of Rp700bn. At the same time, Pefindo has affirmed idAA ratings for BRI Finance and its outstanding bonds. Outlook for the corporate rating is stable.

Pefindo has affirmed idA+ ratings to PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama (BOLD) and its outstanding Bond I and Bond II as well as idA+(sy) rating for its outstanding Sukuk Ijarah I. Outlook for the corporate rating is stable.

Pefindo has assigned idA+ rating to PT Bumi Resource Tbk (BUMI) s proposed Shelf-Registered Bond I of maximum Rp5tn. The Company plans to issue Shelf Registered Bond I Phase I, a maximum of Rp350bn that will be used to partly finance the acquisition of Wolfram limited. At the same time, Pefindo has affirmed idA+ rating with stable outlook to BUMI.

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