Today’s highlights:
The govt. will issue IDR10tn of govt. sukuk in this week’s auction, with the details as follows: SPNS01092025 with indicative yield of 6.05—6.15%, SPNS08122025 with indicative yield of 6.15—6.25%, PBS003 with indicative yield of 6.55—6.60%, PBS030 with indicative yield of 6.57—6.62%, PBS034 with indicative yield of 6.85—6.95%, PBS039 with indicative yield of 6.95—7.05%, and PBS038 with indicative yield of 7.00—7.10%.
Trump did not rule out the possibility of recession, while US National Economic Council expected blips in the data during 1Q25. From China, in response to growing concerns over US prospects, PBOC seemed to reduce their intervention in RMB. Even though, RMB still hovered around 4mo high level. From Japan, DXY may get little relief, if any, as their economy was weaker-than-expected. BoJ may hold its benchmark rate this month. From domestic, BI Regulation No. 3 of 2025 detailed the revisions of TD DHE regulation. Now, exporters could use them to be FX swaps and IDR credit collateral.
Last national business day, the dollar index was closed at 103.90 (+0.1%). Rupiah was depreciated by 0.4% at USDIDR at 16,367. The UST yield was down by -8.8bps to 4.21% and 10yr INDOGBR was up by +1.4bps to 6.88% – the spread between the two was at 267bps.
Economy: PBOC reduced their intervention in RMB
The difference between consensus and fixing rate hit 675bps, the lowest level since Dec’24. It depicted less aggressive PBOC in strengthening RMB. Meanwhile, the currency still hit 4mo high, mainly driven by concerns on US weakening economy. Source: Bloomberg
Economy: Japan’s GDP was revised downward
In 4Q24, annualized GDP grew by +2.2% q-q (1st est: +2.8% q-q, cons: +2.8% q-q, prev: +1.4% q-q). Consumption stagnated at +0% q-q (1st est: +0.1% q-q, cons: +0.1% q-q, prev: +0.7% q-q). Besides, Jan Household Spending also disappointed at +0.8% y-y (cons: +3.7% y-y, prev: +2.7% y-y). Source: Bloomberg
Economy: BI issued regulation to support PP No. 8 of 2025 on DHE SDA
BI Regulation No. 3 of 2025 was issued, amending BI Regulation No. 7 of2023 on Export Proceeds (DHE) and Import Payments (DPI), starting to be effective on 1 Mar. This policy supported the implementation of PP No. 8/2025, which updated rules on export proceeds from natural resources (DHE SDA). It refined DHE SDA placement requirements, added new instruments e.g. SVBI and SUVBI, and set provisions for FX swaps and IDR credit collateral. Banks may use them for hedging with BI. To ensure compliance, Bank Indonesia will monitor DHE SDA inflow, placement, and usage. Source: Bank Indonesia
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Research Division
PT Trimegah Sekuritas Indonesia, Tbk.
