Bond Market Review (Friday,04/10)

Prices of Government Debt Securities (SUN) ended higher in the final trading session of last week. PHEI data showed that the yield on the 5-year SUN benchmark (FR0109) declined by 7 basis points (bps) to 6.27%, while the yield on the 10-year SUN benchmark (FR0108) fell by 9 bps to 6.53%. According to Bloomberg data, the 10-year SUN yield curve (GIDN10YR) decreased by 5 bps to 6.57%.

Outright traded transaction volume in Government Securities (SBN) reached Rp13.3 trillion yesterday, lower than the previous day’s volume of Rp26.6 trillion. FR0108 and FR0059 were the two most actively traded series in the secondary market, with transaction volumes of Rp 1.8 trillion and Rp 1.2 trillion, respectively. Meanwhile, outright transaction volume for corporate bonds totaled Rp4.4 trillion.

Foreign investors recorded net selling of Rp3.5 trillion in the equity market during the period of 6–9 April 2026, indicating that selling pressure persisted over the past week. In contrast, foreign investors recorded net buying of Rp3.8 trillion in the Bank Indonesia Rupiah Securities (SRBI) market during the same period. Meanwhile, in the SBN market, based on DJPPR settlement data as of 8 April 2026, foreign investors recorded net buying of Rp1.5 trillion, indicating a gradual return of interest in domestic fixed income instruments. As a result, aggregate foreign investor flows during the period were estimated at a net buy of Rp1.8 trillion. On a cumulative basis from the beginning of 2026 through 9 April 2026 (for equity and SRBI markets) and 8 April 2026 (for the SBN market), foreign investors recorded net selling of Rp37.3 trillion in equities, net selling of Rp21.1 trillion in SBN, and net buying of Rp32.14 trillion in SRBI (BI, DJPPR, IDX).

Last week, Bank Indonesia conducted two SRBI auctions (8 April and 10 April) with a total awarded amount of Rp32.00 trillion (Rp17.00 trillion and Rp15.00 trillion), higher than the previous week, which conducted a single auction (1 April) with total absorption of Rp15.00 trillion. For the 12-month tenor, the SRBI weighted average yield (WAY) stood at 5.76% at the 10 April auction, increasing by approximately 17 bps compared with the 1 April 2026 auction.

Bloomberg data showed that the Rupiah weakened slightly by 0.08% against the US Dollar, moving from Rp17,090/US$ on Thursday to Rp17,104/US$ on Friday.

Bond Market Preview (Monday,04/13)

As of Friday’s close, global indicators pointed to somewhat negative sentiment for the bond market, as reflected in higher US Treasury (UST) yields. The 5-year and 10-year UST yields increased by 3 bps and 2 bps, respectively, from the previous day to 3.94% and 4.31%. Meanwhile, Indonesia’s 5-year Credit Default Swap (CDS) remained unchanged at 88 bps.

On a week-over-week basis, the 10-year UST yield declined by 10 bps, Indonesia’s 5-year CDS fell by 9 bps, while the Rupiah weakened by 0.73% against the US Dollar. In line with these developments, the 10-year SUN yield curve (GIDN10YR) declined 8 bps to 6.57% on a weekly basis. Overall, improving global conditions and easing sovereign risk have supported the decline in yields, although Rupiah weakness, tighter domestic liquidity, and persistent geopolitical risks continue to constrain further compression.

Recent developments suggest that the conflict in the Middle East remains under increasing strain following the failure of negotiations and continued military activity across multiple theaters. Heightened tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, including potential U.S. naval blockade measures, indicate that the situation remains fragile and increasingly vulnerable to renewed escalation.

Taking the above factors into account, we expect volatility to persist, with yields likely to trade within range as global and domestic forces remain broadly offsetting, although the balance may shift depending on external developments. We project the weekly range for the 10-year SUN yield for 13–17 April 2026 at 6.46%–6.72%. Based on yield-curve valuation, the following bonds may be attractive to investors: FR0096, FR0065, FR0100, FR0068, and FR0103.

Kindly find the link to our Fixed Income Daily Market View for April 13, 2026 provided below this message. Thank you and best regards!

IND

https://research.bnisekuritas.co.id/doc-view?z=bd2dea67-c67e-41b7-b794-f4ffe09c78c7

ENG

https://research.bnisekuritas.co.id/doc-view?z=3b214ed3-8a70-4cd1-95da-d928545b9b13