Bond Market Review (Monday,03/16)
The weakening trend in Government Debt Securities (SUN) prices continued during yesterday’s trading session. PHEI data showed that the yield on the 5-year SUN benchmark (FR0109) rose by 28 basis points (bps) to 6.53%, while the yield on the 10-year SUN benchmark (FR0108) increased by 14 bps to 6.90%. According to Bloomberg data, the 10-year SUN yield curve (GIDN10YR) rose by 11 bps to 6.91%. The 10-year yield curve level has now exceeded the upper bound of our weekly estimated range of 6.70%–6.90%. The sharp increase in SUN yields may also reflect heightened market sensitivity to recent domestic developments, which temporarily weighed on investor sentiment.
Outright transaction volume in Government Securities (SBN) reached Rp28.7 trillion yesterday, relatively unchanged compared with Friday’s volume of Rp28.0 trillion. FR0109 and PBS032 were the two most actively traded series in the secondary market, with transaction volumes of Rp5.2 trillion and Rp4.8 trillion, respectively. Meanwhile, outright transaction volume for corporate bonds totaled Rp11.5 trillion.
Bloomberg data showed that the Rupiah weakened by 0.23% against the US Dollar, moving from Rp16,958/US$ on Friday to Rp16,997/US$ yesterday.
Bond Market Preview (Tuesday,03/17)
As of 16 March 2026, Bloomberg data showed that Brent crude oil prices stood at US$100.9 per barrel, down 2.2% from the previous close.
As of this morning, global indicators show mixed sentiment, with pressure from US Treasury (UST) yields easing, although Indonesia’s Credit Default Swap (CDS) continued to edge higher. The 5-year and 10-year UST yields declined by 7 bps and 5 bps, respectively, to 3.80% and 4.23%. Meanwhile, Indonesia’s 5-year CDS increased by 1 bp to 93 bps.
Considering the above factors, we expect volatility in prices and yields of Rupiah-denominated Government Securities (SBN) to persist. Based on yield curve valuation, the following bonds may be attractive for investors: FR0082, FR0096, FR0100, FR0080, FR0103, and FR0072.
Kindly find the link to our Fixed Income Daily Market View for March 17, 2026 provided below this message. Thank you and best regards!
IND
https://research.bnisekuritas.co.id/doc-view?z=27254ce9-bef6-4a1f-9cb9-944009105f1c
ENG
https://research.bnisekuritas.co.id/doc-view?z=8938710e-41ff-4075-8846-b37c7fdc13bd
