Rupiah-denominated assets closed weaker on Wednesday (11-Mar), reflecting cautious investor sentiment amid continued foreign outflows. The Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) declined 0.69% to 7,389.40 (previous: +1.41%; YTD: -14.54%), with daily turnover falling to Rp15.7tn (previous: Rp19.1tn; YTD average: Rp29.2tn). Foreign investors remained net sellers with -Rp937bn outflows (vs. -Rp2.63tn previously), bringing year-to-date equity outflows to -Rp9.74tn. Regionally, Asian equity markets mostly recovered, led by North Asian technology-heavy markets. Japan s Nikkei rose 1.43% (YTD: +9.31%), while the Shanghai Composite gained 0.25% (YTD: +4.15%), although elevated energy price risks continued to sustain regional volatility.
In the government bond market, INDOGB yields were mixed. Longer tenors continued to see mild buying interest, with the 10-yr FR108 yield declining 0.4 bps to 6.69% and the 20-yr FR107 falling 0.9 bps to 6.80%. However, the belly of the curve weakened, as the 5-yr FR109 yield rose 4.1 bps to 6.09%, while the 15-yr FR106 edged up 0.1 bps to 6.86%. Foreign investors continued to reduce exposure, albeit at a slower pace at Rp1.8tn (vs. -Rp2.2tn previously), posting additional net outflows based on CTP PLTE data. In external indicators, the 5-yr Indonesia USD sovereign yield rose slightly to 4.53% (+1.1 bps) and the 5-yr CDS widened to 88.20 (+0.33 bps), signaling mildly higher sovereign risk premiums. On the currency side, the rupiah weakened 0.15% to Rp16,888/USD, reversing the previous two days of appreciation (YTD: -1.20%).
According to IDX s OTC trading report, Indonesian government bond trading activity strengthened, with total volume rising to Rp42.6tn (vs. Rp39.9tn previous, or YTD avg.: Rp33.3tn). The 5-yr FR0109 benchmark series led market activity, recording Rp7.1tn in trading volume. This was followed by the 7.9-yr FR0100 series (maturing on 15-Feb-34), which recorded Rp4.2tn in trading volume. Its price declined to 99.30 (-0.10%), while the yield rose to 6.74% (+1.65 bps). Close behind, the 10.1-yr FR0108 series (maturing on 15-Apr-36), which recorded Rp3.4tn in trading volume.
As of 10 March, foreign ownership in SBN declined further to Rp869.4tn, representing 12.87% of total outstanding. Domestic investors have continued to absorb supply, led by insurance companies and pension funds (+Rp55.5tn YTD) and onshore banks (+Rp53.4tn), followed by other investors (+Rp42.8tn), Bank Indonesia (+Rp27.4tn), and mutual funds (+Rp24.8tn). Meanwhile, foreign investors (-Rp9.3tn) and retail investors (-Rp6.9tn) remained net sellers year-to-date.
Indonesia s February fiscal balance widened as government spending accelerated to Rp493.8tn (+41.9% YoY), driven by the rollout of the free meal program, higher capital expenditure, and social transfers, bringing spending realization to 12.8% of the FY2026 budget (vs. 9.6% in Feb 2025). On the revenue side, collections remained solid at Rp358tn (+12.8% YoY), supported by tax revenue growth of 20.5% YoY, with total revenue reaching 11.4% of the annual target (vs. 10.6% in Feb 2025). As spending outpaced revenue, the 2M cumulative deficit widened to Rp135.8tn (0.5% of GDP) the largest early-year deficit since 2016. Financing, however, remained ahead of the deficit, with excess financing moderating to Rp28tn (from Rp51tn in January), indicating a more calibrated pace of financing drawdown as the government aligns borrowing with fiscal funding needs and continues to keep rupiah liquidity in the system ample. The earlier front-loaded issuance also helping limit near-term bond supply pressure.
Domestic Corp Bond Market
On the corporate side, trading activity eased on Wednesday (11-Mar), with total volume declining to Rp10.6tn (vs. Rp11.6tn prior, or YTD avg.: Rp5.5tn). The INKP04CCN3 series (maturing on 21-Nov-28), rated idA+, was the most actively traded with a total volume of Rp524bn. Its price rose to 105.52 (+0.26%), while the yield declined to 8.44% (-31.12 bps). This was followed by the SIBALI01BCN3 series (maturing on 5-Dec-28), rated idA(sy) with a volume of Rp489bn. Its price increased to 96.79 (+0.26%), while the yield declined to 8.44% (-28.69 bps). Close behind was the SMOPPM02ACN1 series (maturing on 25-Mar-28), rated idA+(sy) with a volume of Rp385bn. Its price declined to 104.38 (-1.95%), while the yield rose to 7.66% (+106.68 bps).
Pefindo has affirmed idAAA(sf) rating to PT Tamaris Hidro (TYRO) s Bond I Year 2022. According to Pefindo, the instrument rating reflects a very strong structure with credit enhancement from PT Sarana Multi Infrastruktur (Persero). Meanwhile, the rating has incorporated TYRO s moderate financial profile and exposure to hydrological conditions.
Pefindo has rated idAAA rating with stable outlook to PT Sarana Multi Infrastruktur (Persero) (SMI). Pefindo has also affirmed idAAA rating to SMI s outstanding shelf-registered bonds and its idAAA(sy) ratings to SMI s shelf-registered sukuk. According to Pefindo, the rating is mainly driven by SMI s very high likelihood of support from the Indonesian government as the shareholder. SMI s standalone credit profile is support by its very strong market presence in infrastructure financing, very strong capitalization profile, as well as very strong liquidity and financial flexibility. Meanwhile, the rating is constrained by SMI s concentrated financing profile and exposure to fiscal capacity and regulatory changes of public sector institutions.
Pefindo has affirmed idAA rating with stable outlook to PT Perusahaan Pengelola Aset (PPA) and its outstanding bonds, as well as its idAA(sy) rating to PPA s outstanding sukuk. According to Pefindo, the rating reflects a strong likelihood of support from the Indonesia government, a strong business position as a national asset management company, and a low debt burden. Meanwhile, the rating is constrained by PPA s modest profitability.
Pefindo has affirmed idAA- rating with stable outlook to PT Indomobil Finance Indonesia and its outstanding bonds. According to Pefindo, the rating reflects a strong likelihood of support from Salim Group, strong market position, strong liquidity profile, and strong profitability. Meanwhile, the rating is constrained by potential pressure on the quality of its assets.
Pefindo has affirmed idA rating with stable outlook to PT Daaz Bara Lestari Tbk (DAAZ) and its outstanding Bond I/2025. According to Pefindo, the rating reflects DAAZ s vertically integrated operation, strong financial profile, as well as strong demand for commodities. Meanwhile, the rating is constrained by exposure to commodity price fluctuation and exposre to regulation risk.
Pefindo has affirmed idAAA rating with stable outlook to PT Bussan Auto Finance (BAF) as well as its outstanding shelf-registered (SR) bond II and SR bond III. According to Pefindo, the rating is supported by its strong likelihood of support from Mitsui & Co., Ltd. (Mitsui) as the major shareholder, strong market position, and strong capitalization profile. Meanwhile, the rating BAF s below-average asset quality and tight competition outside its captive business.
Fitch Ratings has revised the Outlook to Negative from Stable for five Indonesian public finance government-related entities (GREs) while affirming their Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) at BBB , following the revision of Indonesia s sovereign outlook to Negative. The affected entities are Indonesia Investment Authority (INA), PT Danantara Investment Management (DIM), PT Indonesia Infrastructure Finance (IIF), PT Penjaminan Infrastruktur Indonesia (Persero) (IIGF), and PT Sarana Multi Infrastruktur (Persero) (SMI). The outlook revision reflects the close linkage of these entities ratings to the Indonesian sovereign under Fitch s Government-Related Entities (GRE) criteria, with their ratings equalised with the sovereign due to the high likelihood of government support. Consequently, changes in Indonesia s sovereign rating outlook are directly mirrored in the ratings outlook of these institutions.
