Februari 23, 2026

Mixed INDOGB, Moderate JCI, Firm Rupiah; Current Account Returns to Deficit in 4Q

Rupiah assets delivered mixed performance. The rupiah strengthened by 0.14% to Rp16,883/USD (YTD: -1.10%), supported by improving trade sentiment and relative stabilization in global risk assets. The JCI eased marginally by 0.03% to 8,271.8 (YTD: -4.34%), broadly in line with weaker regional equities amid rising Middle East tensions and higher oil prices. The Nikkei fell by -1.12% (YTD: +12.86%), and the Hang Seng fell by -1.10% (YTD: +3.05%). Turnover in the JCI market declined to Rp20.3tn (vs. Rp26.1tn prior; YTD avg: Rp30.6tn). Foreign investors remained modest net buyers at Rp240.6bn, although YTD flows remained negative at -Rp14.4tn.

In the fixed income market, INDOGB yields were mixed. Short-to-belly tenors edged slightly higher, while long tenors declined modestly. The 5-yr FR109 rose to 5.75% (+0.5 bps) and the 10-yr FR108 to 6.45% (+0.8 bps), while the 15-yr FR106 and 20-yr FR107 eased to 6.63% and 6.68% (-0.7 bps each), respectively. Offshore indicators were mixed, with the 5-yr USD sovereign yield at 4.33% (+0.2 bps) and the 5-yr CDS narrowing to 81 bps.

According to IDX s OTC trading report, the INDOGB daily turnover softened to Rp27.8tn (vs. Rp36.2tn prior, or YTD avg.: Rp32.3tn), led by the 10-yr FR108 benchmark series, which recorded trading volume of Rp3tn. It was followed by the 14.5-yr FR106 and 3.2-yr FR101 series, which recorded trading volumes of Rp2.6tn and Rp2.2tn, respectively.

Based on DMO data, foreign ownership in government bonds continued to trend lower, reaching Rp877.8tn (13.15% of total outstanding) as of 19-Feb. YTD, insurance and pension funds have remained the largest net buyers (+Rp34.9tn), followed by other investors (+Rp33.6tn), mutual funds (+Rp20.3tn), onshore banks (+Rp14.3tn), and Bank Indonesia (+Rp7.6tn). Foreign and retail investors were net sellers at -Rp0.9tn and -Rp4.5tn, respectively.

On a weekly basis, performance was mixed: the JCI rose 0.73%, the 10-yr INDOGB yield increased by 6.2 bps, while the 10-yr USD bond yield declined by 1.5 bps. The rupiah weakened by 0.29% WoW. Foreign investors recorded net equity inflows of Rp2.07tn but net bond outflows of -Rp2.07tn.

On the macro side, Indonesia posted a 4Q25 current account deficit of USD 2.54bn (-0.7% of GDP), broadly in line with expectations. Despite the quarterly deficit, the overall balance of payments remained in surplus, supported by resilient capital inflows and adequate reserves. For full-year 2025, the current account deficit narrowed significantly to around USD 1.5bn (0.1% of GDP), indicating improved external stability

Domestic Corp Bond Market

On the corporate side, trading activity strengthened on Friday (20-Feb), with total volume increasing to Rp8.0tn (vs. Rp5.9tn on 19-Feb). Turnover came in above the prior week s daily average of Rp5.5tn, and the 2026 YTD average of Rp 4.4tn.

The BUMI01CN4 series (maturing on 20-Feb-29), rated idA+, was the most actively traded with a total volume Rp471bn, marking its debut on the secondary market. It traded at 100.00, yielding 7.25%. This was followed by the SMSMII03ACN2 series (maturing on 7-Dec-26), rated idAAA(sy) with a total volume Rp395bn. Its price increased to 100.23 (+1.70%), while the yield fell to 4.70% (-217.32 bps). Close behind was the SMPPGD03ACN5 series (maturing on 13-Sep-26), rated idAAA(sy) with a volume of Rp350bn. Its price icreased to 101.52 (+1.68%), while the yield fell to 3.37% (-302.02 bps).

Over the week, average daily corporate bond trading volume increased to Rp7.0tn (vs. Rp5.5tn in the prior week). The SIMORA02ACN1 series (maturing on 13-Jul-26), rated idA+(sy), emerged as the most actively traded corporate bond, recording total weekly trading volume of Rp760bn.

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