Desember 5, 2025

INDOGB Rebounds, Yields Fall as Foreign Outflows Slow; SRBI Rates Rise but at a Slower Pace

The rupiah assets traded mixed on Wednesday, with equities slipping, while government bonds and the rupiah posted modest gains. The JCI edged down by 0.1% to 8,612 (+1.2% MTD, +21.6% YTD), pressured by weakness in the financial and basic material sectors as investors engaged in profit-taking ahead of this week s foreign-exchange reserves release. Trading activity reached Rp21.3tn, keeping the 2025 average at Rp17.2tn. Foreign investors booked a small net inflow of Rp70.4bn (MTD +Rp0.4tn; YTD Rp29.2tn). Across the region, Asian markets were mixed: the Nikkei Index gained 1.1%, while the Hang Seng Index fell 1.3% as investors awaited key US data, including the ADP jobs and the PCE inflation report.

INDOGB strengthened, sending yields lower across the curve, supported by moderating foreign selling, with foreign investors reporting a small net buy of Rp62bn (vs. +Rp2.31tn prior). The 5-yr FR104 yield dropped to 5.63% ( 10.2 bps), while the 10-yr FR103 declined to 6.24% ( 3.2 bps). The long end remained stable, with the FR106 at 6.44% and FR107 at 6.53%. Offshore, the 5-yr USD INDON yield slipped to 4.39% ( 0.8 bps), and Indonesia s 5-yr CDS tightened to 72.75 bps ( 1.79 bps). Meanwhile, the rupiah appreciated slightly to Rp16,622/USD (+0.23% MTD; 3.23% YTD).

According to IDX s OTC trading report, Indonesian government bond trading activity moderated slightly on Wednesday (3-Dec), with total volume easing to Rp32.2tn (vs. Rp36.9tn on 2-Dec). The figure remained broadly in line with the prior week s daily average of Rp32.5tn and the 2025 year-to-date (YTD) average of Rp32.8tn, while stood comfortably above the 2024 daily average of Rp21.7tn. The 15-yr FR0106 series (maturing on 15-Aug-45) led market activity, recording Rp3.3tn in volume (vs. Rp3.7tn previously). Its price inched up to 106.45 (+0.20%), bringing the yield lower to 6.44% (-2.15 bps). This was followed by the 10-yr FR0103 series (maturing on 15-Jul-35), which booked Rp2.8tn in transactions (vs. Rp4.3tn previously). Its price also inched up to 104.00 (+0.48%), driving the yield lower to 6.19% (-6.83 bps).

The DMO data (as of 2-Dec) showed foreign SBN holdings ticking up to Rp872.9tn (13.37% of outstanding). YTD, onshore banks remain the largest net buyers (+Rp152.8tn), followed by BI (+Rp144.8tn), insurance & pension funds (+Rp125.3tn), mutual funds (+Rp49.5tn), and others (+Rp24.0tn). Foreign investors remain net sellers but at a slower pace ( Rp3.8tn YTD), alongside retail investors ( Rp2.5tn).

SRBI rates continued rising in the 3-Dec auction, though at a slower pace. The weighted average SRBI rate increased by 5.4 bps to 5.00%, compared with +10 bps in the 28-Nov auction and +12.8 bps on 26-Nov. All tenors moved higher: the 6-mo at 4.89% (+6.2 bps), 9-mo at 4.94% (+3.8 bps), and 12-mo at 5.01% (+5.4 bps). Since BI has increased the SRBI auction frequency on 26-Nov, the average SRBI rate has climbed by 28.1 bps. We continue to view the risk of SRBI rates overshooting government bond yields or a repeat of last year s liquidity-tightening episode as relatively low. Foreign investors have begun to rotate back into SRBI, INDOGB, and equities, while expectations for a potential Fed Funds Rate cut in December should also help cap further upside pressure on SRBI yields. Moreover, Bank Indonesia s broader policy mix remains decisively accommodative, as reflected in 125 bps of BI-Rate cuts year-to-date, a Rp225tn decline in SRBI outstanding, and ca. Rp290tn of government bond purchases, primarily in the secondary market. Liquidity conditions are further supported by ca. Rp400tn in BI s macroprudential incentives, alongside the government s Rp276tn SAL redeployment to SOEs and regional development banks.

Domestic Corp Bond Market

On the corporate side, trading activity eased modestly on Wednesday (3-Dec), with total volume declining slightly to Rp5.7tn (vs. Rp5.9tn on 2-Dec). The figure was broadly in line with the prior week s daily average of Rp6.1tn, surpassed the 2025 YTD average of Rp3.8tn, and remained above the 2024 daily average of Rp2.05tn.

The PIDL01ACN2 series (maturing on 10-May-26), rated idA+, led the segment with Rp350bn in trading volume. The bond inched up slightly to 100.00 (+0.03%), driving the yield slightly lower to 6.99% (-6.94 bps). This was followed by the MBMA01ACN1 series (maturing on 15-Jul-26), rated idA, which posted Rp312bn in turnover. Its price inched up slightly to 99.81 (-0.06%), bringing the yield lower to 7.81% (+9.89 bps).

Pefindo has assigned idA rating with stable outlook to PT Allo Bank Indonesia Tbk (Allo Bank). According to Pefindo, the rating reflects Allo Bank s strong likelihood of support from PT CT Corpora (CT Corporate or the Group), strong business synergy with the Group, and very strong capitalization. However, the rating is constrained by its concentrated loan portfolio, less developed retail funds, and exposure to the unsecured consumer segment with limited credit history.

Pefindo has assigned idAAA(cg) rating to PT Pollux Hotels Group Tbk (POLI) s proposed Sustainable Link Bond I/2025 of Rp500bn. The fund will be used for working capital and refinancing. The bond will be fully, unconditionally and irrevocably guaranteed by Credit Guarantee and Investment facility (CGIF, idAAA/Stable) to cover the principal and interest payments when they become due.

Pefindo has affirmed idA+ ratings to PT Bumi Resources Tbk (BUMI), and its outstanding Shelf Registered Bond I. Outlook for the Company s rating is stable. According to Pefindo, the rating reflects BUMI s strong business position as well as sizeable mining reserves and resources. Meanwhile, the rating is constrained by its moderate cash cost position, risk of developing new project, as well as exposure to fluctuating commodity prices and environmental risk.

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