Oktober 31, 2025

INDOGB Under Pressure amid Modest Foreign Inflows

The JCI index extended its upward momentum on Thursday, closing at +0.22% and increasing to 8,184.06 (YTD: +15.60%), though the gains slowed from the prior +0.91%. The daily market turnover stood at Rp21.8tn (vs. Rp22.7tn prior; or YTD avg.: Rp16.6tn), with foreign investors continuing to post inflows, though at a slower pace at Rp784.7bn (vs. +Rp3.8tn prior, or YTD: -Rp42.92tn). Moreover, across Asia, equity markets closed negatively as investors evaluated US President Donald Trump s first face-to-face meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in six years. As reported, the Nikkei 225 Index edged up by -0.31% (YTD: +30.58%), while the Shanghai Index fell -0.72% (YTD: +22.20%).

In the bond market, INDOGB was under pressure, thus yields closed higher, although foreign investors reversed, posting a modest net buy of +Rp0.95tn (vs. -Rp3.31tn prior), based on the CTP data on Thursday. According to Bloomberg, the 5-yr FR104 closed at 104.41 (-0.18%), yielding 5.42% (+4.3 bps); the 10-yr FR103 at 105.24 (-0.25%), yielding 6.03% (+3.6 bps); the 15-yr FR106 at 107.39 (-0.26%), yielding 6.35% (+2.7 bps); and the 20-yr FR107 at 107.18 (-0.16%), yielding 6.48% (+1.5 bps). Offshore, the 5-yr USD global bond yield went up to 4.30% (+2.8 bps), while the 5-yr CDS declined to 73.92 (-1.25 bps). Meanwhile, the rupiah still depreciated against the USD, weakening by -0.13% to Rp16,640/USD (vs. -0.08% prior, YTD: -3.34%).

According to IDX s OTC trading report, Indonesian government bond trading activity remained elevated on Thursday (30-Oct), with total volume holding steady at Rp36.1tn (vs. Rp36.4tn on 29-Oct). The figure stayed above both the prior week s daily average of Rp34.9tn and the 2025 year-to-date (YTD) daily average of Rp33.0tn, as well as the 2024 daily average of Rp21.7tn. The 5-yr FR0104 series (maturing on 15-Jul-30) led market activity, recording Rp7.3tn in trading volume (vs. Rp7.0tn previously). Its price declined to 104.25 (-0.27%), lifting the yield slightly higher to 5.46% (+6.59 bps). This was followed by the 10-yr FR0103 series (maturing on 15-Jul-35), which booked Rp6.0tn in trading volume (vs. Rp5.3tn previously). Its price edged lower to 104.00 (-1.43%), driving the yield significantly higher to 6.19% (+20.21 bps).

As of 28-Oct, foreign ownership in government bonds declined slightly to Rp881.8tn (13.68% of outstanding). Year-to-date, Bank Indonesia remains the largest net buyer (+Rp145.5tn), followed by onshore banks (+Rp124tn), insurance & pension funds (+Rp85.7tn), mutual funds (+Rp33.4tn), others (+Rp18.9tn), and foreign investors (+Rp5.1tn), while retail investors posted a net sell of -Rp7.7tn.

Domestic Corp Bond Market

On the corporate side, bond trading activity extended gains on Thursday (30-Oct), with total volume rising to Rp4.1tn (vs. Rp3.5tn on 29-Oct). The figure surpassed both the prior week s daily average of Rp3.9tn and the 2025 YTD average of Rp3.9tn, while remaining well above the 2024 daily average of Rp2.05tn.

The MBMA01ACN2 series (maturing on 27-Aug-26), rated idA, led the segment with Rp500bn in trading volume. The bond s price inched up to 100.98 (+0.48%), pushing the yield sharply lower to 6.27% (-62.60 bps). This was followed by the SIIJEE01B series (maturing on 8-Jul-28), rated idA(sy), which recorded Rp251bn in trading volume. The bond s price slipped to 104.00 (-0.81%), bringing the yield higher to 9.79% (+35.13 bps).

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