Bond Market Review (Friday,10/24)
Prices of Government Debt Securities (SUN) closed mixed in the last trading session of last week. Based on data from PHEI, the yield on the 5-year SUN Benchmark (FR0104) rose by 1 basis point (bp) to 5.41%, while the yield on the 10-year SUN Benchmark (FR0103) was unchanged at 5.98%. Bloomberg data showed that the 10-year SUN yield curve (GIDN10YR) also remained unchanged at 5.99%.
The outright traded transaction volume of Government Securities (SBN) was recorded at Rp26.4 trillion yesterday, relatively unchanged from the previous day’s volume of Rp25.5 trillion. FR0104 and FR0103 were the two most actively traded series in the secondary market, with transaction volumes of Rp7.4 trillion and Rp5.5 trillion, respectively. Meanwhile, the outright trading volume of corporate bonds stood at Rp5.0 trillion.
According to Bank Indonesia’s Report on the Performance of the Rupiah Stability Indicators, non-resident investors recorded a net sell of Rp0.94 trillion during the trading period of October 20–23, 2025. This flow consisted of a net sell of Rp2.73 trillion in the SBN market and Rp1.28 trillion in Bank Indonesia Rupiah Securities (SRBI), while the equity market recorded a net buy of Rp3.08 trillion. Cumulatively, from the beginning of the year until October 23, 2025 (based on settlement data), non-residents recorded a net sell of Rp48.36 trillion in equities and Rp136.76 trillion in SRBI, while the SBN market still booked a net buy of Rp8.58 trillion.
Bloomberg data indicated that the Rupiah exchange rate against the US Dollar strengthened by 0.16%, moving from Rp16,629/US$ on Thursday to Rp16,602/US$ on Friday.
Bond Market Preview (Monday,10/27)
As of Friday’s position, global indicators showed a generally positive sentiment, reflected in the movement of Indonesia’s Credit Default Swap (CDS) level. Indonesia’s 5-year CDS fell by 2 bps to 79 bps. On the other hand, the US Treasury (UST) 5-year yield curve remained unchanged at 3.61%, while the 10-year UST yield curve edged up by 1 bp to 4.02%.
On a week-over-week basis, Indonesia’s 5-year CDS declined by 3 bps, while the 10-year UST yield curve remained unchanged from the previous week. Meanwhile, the Rupiah depreciated slightly by 0.07% against the US Dollar. With the above indicators showing mixed sentiment, the 10-year SUN yield curve (GIDN10YR) recorded a weekly increase of 3 bps to 5.99%.
Market participants are awaiting the results of the upcoming FOMC Meeting this week. Considering the above factors, we anticipate increased volatility in the prices and yields of Rupiah-denominated Government Securities (SBN). We project the weekly range for the 10-year SUN yield during the October 20–24 period to be in the range of 5.94%–6.18%. Based on yield curve valuation, the following bonds may be attractive to investors: FR0075, FR0098, FR0079, and FR0083.
Kindly find the link to our Fixed Income Daily Market View for October 27, 2025 provided below this message. Thank you and best regards!
IND
https://research.bnisekuritas.co.id/doc-view?z=445f4ca7-1467-49ae-9fd1-10d6a102b46e
ENG
https://research.bnisekuritas.co.id/doc-view?z=291fcae3-90d4-4033-a274-b26ebdac3e7e
