Agustus 11, 2025

JCI Rebounds, INDOGB Rallies Further, Rupiah Softens Slightly

Rupiah assets closed mixed on Friday (8-Aug). The JCI rebounded to 7,533.39 (+0.58% DoD; YTD: +7.58%), with the turnover rising to Rp18.5tn (vs. Rp16.8tn prior; YTD avg.: Rp13.6tn). Foreign investors reversed course after 3 days of inflows, posting -Rp510.9bn in net selling (vs. +Rp666.1bn previously; YTD: +Rp61.9tn). Regionally, the sentiment was mixed; the Hang Seng fell -0.89% (YTD: +23.84%), while the Nikkei 225 rallied +1.85% (YTD: +6.56%) due to positive earnings and optimism over US tariff removals.

INDOGB extended its rally, supported by strong foreign inflows of +Rp4.12tn (benchmark at +Rp2.3tn and non-benchmark at +Rp1.8tn, according to the CTP PLTE data). Benchmark yields fell, with the 5Y FR104 at 102.38 (yielding 5.93%, -3.3 bps), the 10Y FR103 at 102.52 (6.40%, -3.8 bps), the 15Y FR106 at 103.21 (6.78%, -0.2 bps), and the 20Y FR107 at 103.25 (6.83%, -2.4 bps). Meanwhile, the USD sovereign curve edged higher; the 5Y tenor (Mar-2031) slipped to 87.08 (4.49%, +2.1 bps). Indonesia s 5Y CDS narrowed to 74.56 bps (-0.74 bps). The rupiah snapped a 4-day rally, softening by 0.02% to Rp16,294/USD (vs. +0.45% previously; YTD: -1.14%), in line with a stronger DXY.

According to IDX s OTC trading report, Indonesian government bond trading activity heightened on Friday (8-Aug), with volume rising to Rp38.8tn (vs. Rp32.4tn on 7-Aug). The figure exceeded the current week s daily average of Rp35.8tn and remained well above both the 2025 year-to-date (YTD) daily average of Rp30.5tn and the 2024 daily average of Rp21.7tn. The 10-yr FR0103 series (maturing on 15-Jul-35) led market flows, with trading volume surging to Rp9.1tn (vs. Rp3.0tn in the previous day). Its price advanced to 102.74 (+1.72%), pressing the yield lower to 6.37% (-23.73 bps). This was followed by the 5-yr FR0104 series (maturing on 15-Jul-30), which booked a trading volume of Rp4.6tn (vs. Rp5.5tn previously). The bond s price inched up to 102.46 (+0.20%), bringing the yield down to 5.92% (-4.70 bps).

On the flow side, based on the latest DMO data (as of 7-Aug), foreign holding in government bonds rebounded, increasing to Rp935.4tn, at 14.57% of the total outstanding. Year-to-date, Bank Indonesia has been the biggest net buyer of government bonds (amounting to +Rp114.9tn), followed by onshore banks (+Rp75.1tn), insurance & pension funds (+Rp67.6tn), foreign investors (+Rp58.7tn), retail investors (+Rp40.3tn), other investors (+Rp19.1tn), and mutual funds (+Rp5.4tn).

Based on our calculation, onshore banks maintained their dominance in the primary sukuk market during the 5-Aug auction, securing Rp7.5tn in net awards, or 57.9% of the total issuance. Other investors followed with Rp2tn in net awards, insurance and pension funds with Rp1.7tn, Bank Indonesia with Rp0.9tn, and mutual funds with Rp0.5tn.

Over the week, the JCI edged down -0.05% (vs. -0.06% last week). In contrast, the domestic government bond market rallied, with the 10Y INDOGB yield reversing and sharply lowering by -16.5 bps (vs. +5.5 bps last week), while the USD-denominated 10Y INDOGB yield fell -7.0 bps (vs. -0.4 bps last week). Moreover, the rupiah strengthened by +1.21% against the USD (vs. -1.09% last week). Foreign flows turned positive across asset classes; equity market inflows amounted to +Rp0.12tn (vs. -Rp2.20tn last week), while bond market inflows surged to +Rp8.92tn (vs. -Rp1.74tn last week).

For the week, the average daily trading volume in government bonds held firm at Rp35.8tn, in line with the prior week Rp35.8tn. The 10-yr FR0103 series remained the most actively traded, although its total weekly volume eased slightly to Rp26.2tn (vs. Rp27.8tn previously).

Domestic Corp Bond Market

On the corporate side, trading activity picked up on Friday (8-Aug), with volume increasing to Rp2.9tn (vs. Rp2.4tn on 7-Aug). The figure remained well below both the current week s daily average of Rp3.7tn and the 2025 YTD average of Rp3.98tn, yet stayed comfortably above the 2024 daily average of Rp2.05tn.

The SMINKP03BCN2 series (maturing on 25-Aug-26), rated idA+(sy), topped the segment with a trading volume of Rp326bn. Its price inched up to 101.94 (+0.19%), bringing the yield down to 8.29% (-19.33 bps). This was followed by the TOBA01BCN1 series (maturing on 8-Jul-30), rated idA, which posted a trading volume of Rp157bn. The bond s price eased to 101.15 (-1.72%), pushing the yield higher to 8.71% (+43.77 bps).

For the week, the average daily trading volume in corporate bonds declined sharply to Rp3.7tn (vs. Rp5.3tn in the prior week). The 4.3-yr SMDSSA01CCN3 series (maturing on 26-Nov-29), rated idAA(sy), emerged as the most actively traded corporate bond, recording a total weekly volume of Rp591bn.

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