Juni 16, 2025

INDOGB Yield Continues Lowering and the Rupiah Strengthens, While the JCI Falls Further

The rupiah asset class was mixed on Thursday (12-Jun); the JCI continued to fall, while INDOGB and the rupiah currency went up further. Indonesia s equity market index (the JCI index) still underperformed, posting losses of -0.25% and hitting 7,204.37 (vs. -0.11% prior), thus widening the year-to-date performance to -2.98%. Foreign investors recorded a net outflow of -Rp282.4bn (vs. +Rp79.31bn prior; YTD: -Rp49.06tn). Furthermore, the total trading value dropped to Rp13.56tn (vs. Rp18.35tn prior) but was slightly above the YTD average of Rp13tn. Regionally, Asian equity markets closed mixed; the Nikkei 225 Index fell by -0.65% to 38,173.09 (vs. +0.55% prior; YTD: -2.77%), and Hang Seng index plummeted by -1.36% to 24,035.38 (vs. +0.84% prior; YTD: 20.29%), triggered by President Trump s announcement that he would set unilateral tariff rates within 2 weeks, reigniting trade tensions. At the same time, heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East weighed on market sentiment. Additional downward momentum came from a softer-than-expected US CPI for May, which raised market expectations for a potential Federal Reserve rate cut as soon as September.

The INDOGB rally continued, while foreign investors still recorded inflows to the Indonesian bond market, reaching +Rp0.67tn (vs. +Rp3.87tn on the previous day), based on the CTP PLTE on Thursday. According to Bloomberg, the 5-yr FR104 benchmark series was trading at 100.93 (+0.14%) or yielded 6.28% (-3.40 bps), the 10-yr FR103 at 100.56 (+0.45%) or yielded 6.67% (-6.20 bps), the 15-yr FR106 at 101.78 (+0.22%) or yielded 6.93% (-2.30 bps), and the 20-yr FR107 at 101.40 (+0.17%) or yielded 6.99% (-1.60 bps). Regarding the 10-yr RoI USD global bond that will mature in Mar-2031, its price went up to 86.03 (+0.35%), and its yield fell to 4.65% (-6.40 bps), while the 5-yr CDS increased to 74.05 (+1.53 bps). Meanwhile, the rupiah continued to strengthen, appreciating against the USD by +0.15% to Rp16,235/USD (vs. +0.10% prior; YTD: -0.77%).

According to IDX s OTC trading report, Indonesian rupiah government bond trading activity remained subdued on Thursday (12-Jun), with volume slightly easing to Rp32.0tn (vs. Rp33.7tn on 11-Jun). Although the figure stayed well below the prior week s average daily trading volume of Rp40.1tn, it remained comfortably above both the 2025 year-to-date (YTD) daily average of Rp29.2tn and the 2024 daily average of Rp21.7tn. The 10-yr FR0103 series (maturing on 15-Jul-35) maintained its position as the most actively traded government bond, despite a slight dip in volume to Rp4.7tn (vs. Rp5.0tn on the previous day). Its price inched up to 100.64 (+0.41%), driving the yield lower to 6.66% (-5.62 bps). Close behind, the 5-yr FR0104 series (maturing on 15-Jul-30) posted a trading volume of Rp2.5tn (vs. Rp4.4tn previously). The bond s price climbed to 99.85 (+0.86%), pushing the yield down to 6.18% (-32.37 bps).

The latest DMO bond flow data is as of 11-Jun (reflecting trading on 9-Jun), wherein foreign ownership in government bonds continued to increase to Rp930tn or 14.60% of the total outstanding. Year-to-date, Bank Indonesia has been the biggest net buyer of government bonds (amounting to +Rp86.9tn), followed by onshore banks (+Rp70tn), insurance and pension funds (+Rp56.4tn), foreign investors (+Rp53.3tn), other investors (+Rp30.5tn), retail investors (+Rp26tn), and mutual funds (+Rp7.8tn).

Domestic Corp Bond Market

On the corporate side, trading activity picked up on Thursday (12-Jun), with volume rising to Rp3.3tn (vs. Rp2.8tn on 11-Jun). Despite the uptick, the figure remained slightly below both the prior week s average daily volume of Rp3.6tn and the 2025 YTD daily average of Rp3.6tn, though still above the 2024 daily average of Rp2.05tn.

The SMINKP04BCN4 series (maturing on 12-Jun-28), rated idA+(sy), debuted in the secondary market and led the corporate bond segment with a trading volume of Rp356bn. It was traded at 99.85, yielding 10.06%. Following this, the INKP05BCN4 series (maturing on 12-Jun-28), rated idA+, also made its first appearance in the secondary market, recording a trading volume of Rp226bn. The bond traded at 99.96, reflecting a yield of 10.02%.

Pefindo affirmed idA rating to PT Lontar Papyrus Pulp & Paper Industry (LPPI) with stable outlook. Pefindo has also affirmed idA rating to LPPI s Shelf-Registered Bond I Year 2021, Shelf-Registered Bond II Year 2023, and Shelf-Registered Bond III Year 2024 and idA(sy) rating for LPPI s Shelf Registered Sukuk Mudharabah I Year 2024. The corporate rating reflects LPPI s strong business position, vertically well-integrated operations, and strong operating management. However, it is constrained by risks related to high working capital needs as well as exposure to price volatility of products and raw materials.

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