Today’s highlights:
Concerns on US economy kept growing, as fears of higher tariff were looming. In Mar, Michigan Consumer Sentiment hit 2yr low (curr: 57.9, cons: 63, prev: 64.7). The tariff issue may induce households to reduce discretionary spending. From domestic, the govt. started to disburse THR today, with budget allocated at IDR49.4tn. The policy may support Eid-al Fitr festivities.
From the bond market, FR 81, 83, 67, and 57 are currently the cheapest based on our yield curve model. Last national business day, the dollar index was closed at 103.72 (-0.1%). Rupiah was appreciated by 0.5% at USDIDR at 16,350. The UST yield was up by +4.4bps to 4.31% and 10yr INDOGBR was up by +2.8bps to 6.97% – the spread between the two was at 266bps.
Economy: In Mar, US Consumer Sentiment hit 2yr low
In Mar, US Michigan Consumer Sentiment was at (curr: 57.9, cons: 63, prev: 64.7). The decline was broad-based. Current Economic Conditions dropped to 63.5 (cons: 64.4, prev: 65.7), followed by Consumer Expectations (curr: 54.2, cons 63, prev: 64). At the same time, expectation on short-term inflation spiked to +4.9% y-y (cons: +4.3% y-y, prev: +4.3% y-y), together with its long-term counterpart (curr: +3.9% y-y, cons: +3.4% y-y, prev: +3.5% y-y), whose m-m change hit the highest level since 1993. Moreover, the concerns were mainly on Trump’s tariff plan. Source: Univ. of Michigan, Bloomberg
Economy: Today, THR started to be disbursed
On Mon (17 Mar), Religious Holiday Allowances (THR) for govt. officials started to be disbursed. The allocated budget was at IDR49.4tn with detail as follows: IDR17.7tn for Civil State Apparatuses (PNS), Police, & Army; IDR12.4tn for retired officials, and IDR19.3tn for Regional PNS. Furthermore, the components included base salary, associated allowances, and 100% of performance allowances, and the Income Tax would be borne by the govt. Meanwhile, 13th salary would be paid on Jun. Source: CNN
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Research Division
PT Trimegah Sekuritas Indonesia, Tbk.
